B3 Consulting Group

B3 · Nasdaq Stockholm · share SEK 21.3 · SEKNOK 0.98 · generated 2026-08-23

Thesis — B3 Consulting Group

Established 2026-07-26 (onboarding). Holding.

Summary

Swedish IT consulting is in a cyclical downturn, and B3 has been punished harder than its peers — priced below book value and at a fraction of yearly sales. Through the trough the company is consolidating: cutting overhead, unwinding the Norway misstep (Habberstad), and buying up the entrepreneur minorities in its specialist companies so more of the next upturn's profit lands with shareholders. The equity is a thin slice on top of debt and minority stakes — if margins recover toward their history, the value of that slice multiplies.

Company terms: glossary.

Foundations

If any of these change, the thesis must be re-evaluated.

The market

The Swedish IT-consulting downturn is cyclical — demand for senior consultants returns; it is not structural displacement (e.g. AI permanently shrinking the need B3 serves).
B3 is priced at a real discount to peers (verified at onboarding, July 2026: 0.16× sales, 0.65× book).

The company through the trough

Consultant headcount stabilizes around today's level (874 co-workers at June 2026) — the two-year slide stops; capacity is there for the turn.
The consolidation delivers: overhead keeps falling, so recovered volume lands on margin — operating margin heads back toward the historical ~8%.
Minority buy-ins continue — the parent's share of group profit rises (in Q2 2026 the minorities absorbed more than all of it).
B3 gets through without distress — the 250 MSEK senior secured bond is serviced, no rescue rights issue, no forced sale of units.

Dossier highlights

The qualitative picture, from the company dossier — seeded at onboarding from fact research; Kim's own view of the company is still forming, and these lines are confirmed or culled as it does. The full dossier holds the complete news log and sourcing.

Strengths

The cost work shows up in numbers: Q2 2026 operating profit rose to 12.1 MSEK from 10.3 a year earlier on 3% lower revenue; utilisation back to 86.1% from the 81.7% trough (Q3 2025).
B3 Poland is the margin engine: ~11% operating margin, 28% of group operating profit on 12% of revenue (first half 2026).
The specialist-company model gives senior consultants real ownership — a recruiting edge in a people business (the same structure that costs the minority leakage below).
Financing is settled: the 250 MSEK senior secured bond refinanced the 2027 maturities in July 2026 — financing secured to 2029, in the chief executive's words.
Priced for distress: 0.16× yearly sales, 0.65× book value at 19.50 SEK (close 2026-07-24).

Weaknesses

Organic revenue has shrunk double-digit for two years: −12.6% full-year 2025, −13.1 points Q1 2026, −7.5% first half 2026 excluding Habberstad. Capacity followed: co-workers 996 (end 2024) → 874 (June 2026).
Minority leakage: in Q2 2026 the group earned +1.9 MSEK but parent shareholders got −0.7 (−0.07 per share); for full-year 2025 the parent kept 10.9 of 14.5 MSEK. See non-controlling interests.
Leverage on a small equity: net debt 163 MSEK excluding leases = 3.3× the trailing year's operating profit before depreciation, beside a ~185 MSEK market value of all shares.
The dividend is gone two years running (for 2024 and 2025); the last payout was November 2024.
Management churn: the chief executive was replaced October 2025 (successor in office February 2026); the Norway expansion was unwound at cost after 17 months.
Small-cap liquidity: ~185 MSEK market value, ~1,750 owners at Avanza.

What moves the share price

The Swedish IT-consulting cycle turning — the thesis bet. Watch quarterly organic growth, and the listed Swedish peers — Knowit, CAG Group, Softronic — as market proxies (Bouvet dropped 2026-07-27: it reads the Norwegian market, the wrong gauge for a bet on the Swedish cycle).
Operating margin recovering toward the historical ~8% as overhead cuts meet returning volume.
Minority buy-ins raising the parent's share of profit.
Dividend reinstatement — the market's signal that the trough has passed.
Terms and service of the 250 MSEK senior secured bond.

News & model changes

Stories and belief revisions since first publication, newest first.

2026-08-19 — Extraordinary general meeting approved selling all of B3's 51% of Habberstad to HAS Gruppen AS — the buyers are Habberstad's own management and staff, so Swedish insider-transaction law required the meeting's blessing at a nine-tenths majority, which it gave. Every condition for completion is now met; completion is expected during August (communiqué, MFN).
Why it matters: the Norway unwind turns from conditional to certain, and the board finally sized it — Habberstad is about 8% of group revenue, so reported revenue steps down from the third quarter for a reason that has nothing to do with the market cycle. The organic growth line strips divestments and stays the comparable one, which is where the peer inflection is read. B3 keeps a foot in Norway through its stake in Habberstad Rekruttering og Utvikling and continuing client work; the at-cost price was judged fair on this year's results, an updated business plan and an internal valuation, and the board expects no material effect on earnings or financial position.