Thesis — B3 Consulting Group

Thesis — B3 Consulting Group

Established 2026-07-26 (onboarding). Holding.

Summary

Swedish IT consulting is in a cyclical downturn, and B3 has been punished harder than its peers — priced below book value and at a fraction of yearly sales. Through the trough the company is consolidating: cutting overhead, unwinding the Norway misstep (Habberstad), and buying up the entrepreneur minorities in its specialist companies so more of the next upturn's profit lands with shareholders. The equity is a thin slice on top of debt and minority stakes — if margins recover toward their history, the value of that slice multiplies.

Company terms: glossary.

Foundations

If any of these change, the thesis must be re-evaluated.

The market

• The Swedish IT-consulting downturn is cyclical — demand for senior consultants returns; it is not structural displacement (e.g. AI permanently shrinking the need B3 serves).
• B3 is priced at a real discount to peers (verified at onboarding, July 2026: 0.16× sales, 0.65× book).

The company through the trough

• Consultant headcount stabilizes around today's level (874 co-workers at June 2026) — the two-year slide stops; capacity is there for the turn.
• The consolidation delivers: overhead keeps falling, so recovered volume lands on margin — operating margin heads back toward the historical ~8%.
• Minority buy-ins continue — the parent's share of group profit rises (in Q2 2026 the minorities absorbed more than all of it).
• B3 gets through without distress — the 250 MSEK senior secured bond is serviced, no rescue rights issue, no forced sale of units.