{
  "_convention": "Append-only histories (decision 2026-07-22): the CURRENT value of every element is the LAST entry in its history. A change is a new entry — date, source (with link where possible), values, and the reason as understood at the time. Never edit or delete old entries; correct a mistake with a new entry saying so. The report's 'What changed' section renders entries newer than the previous report. Company terms: glossary.md.",
  "drivers": {
    "_note": "Kim's beliefs. Claude proposes changes with evidence; only Kim approves. Ranges {low, base, high} express genuine uncertainty (ADR-0004).",
    "_entitlement": "NOT a driver. Entitlement is COMPUTED from price, production, opex and capex via the calibrated PSC mechanics in the 'psc' block below (decision 2026-07-22, Kim: mechanics beat a ratio that changes every quarter).",
    "realizedOilPrice": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl",
      "revisionTriggers": [
        "Middle East de-escalation or escalation (war premium in/out)",
        "EIA/consensus 2027 outlook moving materially from ~$65",
        "A lifting realizing far from Brent-at-lifting-date (contract terms worth rechecking)"
      ],
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2026-07-22",
          "source": "onboarding",
          "values": {
            "2026H2": { "low": 70, "base": 85, "high": 105 },
            "2027+": { "low": 55, "base": 70, "high": 90 }
          },
          "reason": "Single driver merging Brent and differential: sales are Brent-linked via the ADNOC lifting contract and lifting timing swamps the differential. Anchors (July 2026): Brent ~$89-91 with a Middle East war premium; EIA STEO sees $65 average for 2027 on inventory builds. Realized history: 2023: 78.3, 2024: 77.9, 2025: 61.3 (timing-unlucky), Apr 2026 lifting: 116.05."
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-22",
          "source": "Kim decision (report session, lifting-price attribution)",
          "values": {
            "2026H2": { "low": 55, "base": 70, "high": 90 },
            "2027+": { "low": 55, "base": 70, "high": 90 }
          },
          "reason": "2026H2 price retired as a separate estimate: the April overlift settled H1 and most of Q3 production at the realized $116.05, so the only unsold 2026 barrels realize at the NEXT lifting (~late Q4 2026, more likely Q1 2027) - next-winter prices, which is what the 2027 driver estimates. All not-yet-covered barrels now use the 2027 range."
        }
      ]
    },
    "netWiProduction": {
      "unit": "bopd (net WI, yearly average)",
      "revisionTriggers": [
        "Quarterly production outside ~4,600-5,300 without a stated one-off cause",
        "2027 infill campaign delayed, cancelled, or disappointing",
        "Production efficiency below ~85% for two consecutive quarters",
        "2P reserves update (annual statement of reserves) showing replacement well below 1"
      ],
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2026-07-22",
          "source": "onboarding",
          "values": { "2026": 4900, "2027": 5000, "2028": 4900, "2029": 4700, "2030": 4500 },
          "reason": "Q2 2026 running at 5,060 bopd with exit capacity >5,200 (post Tchibouela East infill); Q1 2026 (4,721) was dragged by a one-off 16-day outage. 2027 plateau assumes the planned 2027 infill campaign on Tchibouela/Tchibouela East delivers like the 2025 one did (+6,500 bopd gross). Gentle decline after. Reserve context: 14.6 MMbbls 2P net = ~8 years at these rates, with recent reserve replacement above 1."
        }
      ]
    },
    "opexPerWiBarrel": {
      "unit": "USD per net WI barrel",
      "revisionTriggers": [
        "Quarterly opex per WI barrel outside $11-15",
        "Operator (Perenco) cost inflation commentary in reports"
      ],
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2026-07-22",
          "source": "onboarding",
          "values": { "all": 13 },
          "reason": "Company states $12/bbl (Q1 2026 presentation); Q1 2026 actuals imply ~$14.1 (USD 6.0M / ~425k WI bbls). Split toward the actuals. Non-operated - Perenco controls the cost base."
        }
      ]
    },
    "adminCost": {
      "unit": "USD million per year",
      "revisionTriggers": [
        "Trial legal costs appearing as admin creep above ~$2.5M/quarter",
        "Corporate activity (Aje sale process) driving professional fees"
      ],
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2026-07-22",
          "source": "onboarding",
          "values": { "all": 8 },
          "reason": "2025 actual: $8.0M (down from $14M in 2024 after DoJ inquiry closure and restructuring); Q1 2026 annualizes to $7.6M. Trial-related legal costs could push this up through 2027-2028."
        }
      ]
    },
    "capex": {
      "unit": "USD million per year",
      "revisionTriggers": [
        "Any 2027 capex guidance in Q2/Q3 2026 reports (replace placeholder immediately)",
        "PNGF Bis development decision (would be new capex on top)",
        "Rig contract announcements"
      ],
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2026-07-22",
          "source": "onboarding",
          "values": { "2026": 9, "2027": 30, "2028": 15, "2029+": 10 },
          "reason": "WEAKEST ANCHOR in the set. 2026: Q1 ran at $2.3M (annualizes to ~$9M, maintenance-level). 2027: infill campaign planned (Tchibouela focus) - $30M is a placeholder scaled from the 2025 five-well program's apparent cost; no company guidance yet. Infill economics attractive at $11/bbl reserves added, so capex here creates value, but the number needs the company's 2027 guidance."
        }
      ]
    },
    "legalContingency": {
      "unit": "USD million, one-off cash out 2027-2028",
      "revisionTriggers": [
        "Trial developments from 2026-11-23 (weekly scan watches this)",
        "Any settlement signals or indictment scope changes",
        "Okokrim's stated fine demand when it becomes public"
      ],
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2026-07-22",
          "source": "onboarding",
          "values": { "all": { "low": 0, "base": 20, "high": 75 } },
          "reason": "The trial priced as arithmetic (the thesis core). Low: acquittal - company categorically contests and the parallel US DoJ inquiry closed without action. Base: a Yara-scale Norwegian corporate corruption fine (NOK ~300M). High: a punitive multiple. Timing: initial outcome Q1 2027, appeals to Q4 2028. NOT modeled: licence loss or management-integrity revelations - those are thesis sell-triggers, not scenarios (see thesis.md)."
        }
      ]
    },
    "distributionPayout": {
      "unit": "share of earnings on production basis",
      "revisionTriggers": [
        "A year's distribution deviating far from ~80% of that year's earnings on production basis",
        "Capital reallocation to PNGF Bis / Aje instead of distributions",
        "Distribution pause (also a thesis sell-trigger if unexplained)"
      ],
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2026-07-22",
          "source": "onboarding",
          "values": { "all": 0.8 },
          "reason": "Revealed policy: NOK 4.2/share in 2025 (~$56M) + NOK 3.25/share June 2026 (~$44M), consistent with distributing most free cash while retaining a buffer. Board language: 'focus on near term shareholder return'."
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "source": "terminology decision (CONTEXT.md)",
          "values": { "all": 0.8 },
          "reason": "Wording only, value unchanged: 'free cash flow' retired for 'earnings on production basis' (CONTEXT.md avoid-list - it is not a cash flow; the cash bridge converts it to cash). Unit and trigger text updated to match."
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "psc": {
    "_note": "Calibrated contract mechanics - neither facts (looked up) nor drivers (believed), but parameters fitted to reported history. Formula: entitlement = WI production - royalty - stateProfitOilShare x profit oil; cost oil = (opex + capex) / realized price; profit oil = WI production - royalty - cost oil. Observed entitlement ratios 2021-2025: 64.7/61.3/74.0/68.4/70.4% - every move explained by price (up -> ratio down) and capex recovery (up -> ratio up).",
    "royaltyShare": {
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2026-07-22",
          "source": "AR 2025 Note 09 + Loi 28-2016",
          "values": { "all": 0.15 },
          "reason": "Statutory, not just contractual: fixed 15% of gross production, paid in kind (Congo Hydrocarbon Code 2016; confirmed in AR 2025 Note 09)."
        }
      ]
    },
    "stateProfitOilShare": {
      "revisionTriggers": [
        "Reconstruction backtest residuals showing price-dependence in theta (super-profit tranches need explicit modeling)",
        "Quarterly entitlement build deviating >5 points from the computed value",
        "Any PSC renegotiation or licence extension announcement (PNGF Sud talks with government)"
      ],
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2026-07-22",
          "source": "reconstruction backtest (npm run backtest:petronor)",
          "values": { "all": { "low": 0.22, "base": 0.32, "high": 0.46 } },
          "reason": "Implied theta at royalty 15%: 2021: .35, 2022: .52 (super-profit/high-price year), 2023: .24, 2024: .28, 2025: .33, Q1 2026: .22. Base 0.32 reconstructs 2021-2025 with ~6-7% RMSE; the range covers the recent cluster and the high-price spike, and feeds the projection spread (low outcome uses high theta). Cost-pool carry-forward tested: negligible improvement, not adopted. Booked royalty runs 18-19.5% of realized value (official-price valuation artifact); barrels math keeps the disclosed 15%."
        }
      ]
    },
    "costRecovery": {
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2026-07-22",
          "source": "reconstruction backtest + Loi 28-2016",
          "values": { "rule": "opex + capex recovered as cost oil in-year, ceiling 50% of production" },
          "reason": "In-year recovery is an assumption (carry-forward tested in backtest: no improvement). The 50% ceiling is STATUTORY (Congo Hydrocarbon Code, Loi 28-2016: cost stop <= 50%, up to 70% only for exceptional zones). Observed peak need: ~40% in 2023 - the cap has not bound in our data."
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "facts": {
    "_note": "Looked up, not assumed - Claude refreshes these freely; each refresh is a new history entry.",
    "sharesOutstanding": {
      "history": [
        { "date": "2026-07-22", "source": "Q1 2026 interim report", "values": { "all": 142356855 }, "reason": "Weighted average ordinary shares outstanding, Q1 2026 note." }
      ]
    },
    "workingInterest": {
      "history": [
        { "date": "2026-07-22", "source": "Q1 2026 update", "values": { "all": 0.1683 }, "reason": "Effective 16.83% net working interest in PNGF Sud via HEPCO (20% licence interest)." }
      ]
    },
    "netCashUsd": {
      "history": [
        { "date": "2026-07-22", "source": "estimate from Q1 2026 report + April lifting", "values": { "all": 105000000 }, "reason": "PLACEHOLDER pending Q2 report: 44.0M cash at 31 Mar + 111.9M April lifting proceeds - ~44M June distribution - ~7M estimated Q2 running costs. Debt: zero." }
      ]
    },
    "reserves2pMMbbls": {
      "history": [
        { "date": "2026-07-22", "source": "2025 annual report (THREE60 Energy audit)", "values": { "asOf 2025-12-31": 14.6 }, "reason": "2P proved + probable net to PetroNor at PNGF Sud; 2025 reserve replacement above 1." }
      ]
    },
    "entitlementInventory": {
      "revisionTriggers": [
        "Q2 2026 report (~Aug 20) prints the 30 June stock/overlift position - compare with the chain's prediction",
        "Any reappearing crude-inventory unit cost disclosure (converts the YE2025 crude 661k USD to barrels and may resolve the ~50k bbl puzzle)"
      ],
      "history": [
        { "date": "2026-07-22", "source": "Q1 2026 update", "values": { "rule": "~100k bbl/month build; >500k bbl overlift from April 2026 lifting being repaid" }, "reason": "Company-stated build rate; determines lifting capacity for H2 2026 (next cargo late Q4 2026 or Q1 2027)." },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "source": "ARs 2021-2025 + 2025 interim balance sheets (see actuals.json _printedPositions)",
          "values": { "start2025Bbl": -491376, "yeStockBbl": { "2020": 38730, "2021": 24256, "2022": 253992, "2023": 106211 } },
          "reason": "Stock chain re-anchored on PRINTED positions, replacing the ~156k-at-1-Jan-2026 estimate (net shift ~80k bbl): 1 Jan 2025 = overlift liability 35,782k USD / Dec-2024 cargo 72.82 USD/bbl. Quarterly 2025 liability path confirms the chain (Q2 repayment matches entitlement to 31 bbl). Known and flagged: 2022 shows a +129k bbl reconciliation plug (break inside consolidation-era accounts, unresolvable from stored documents); YE2025 crude note (~24k bbl at plausible cost) vs chain ~73k unresolved - unit cost undisclosed since 2023."
        }
      ]
    }
  }
}