PetroNor E&P

Thesis — PetroNor E&P

Established 2026-07-22 (onboarding). Restructured 2026-07-25 (Summary + Foundations). Production foundation restated 2026-08-29 (Q2 2026 report). Holding.

Summary

A debt-free producer with a stable production record that creates far more value than its price: in the base case, the next five years' earnings on production basis exceed today's entire market value. The market is too bearish because of the pending corruption trial — a fine, even a large one, is absorbable. And the cash is handled with discipline: sound decisions, nothing thrown away, most of it returned as distributions.

Target prices (fair value, derived below): NOK 4.6 / 13.2 / 22.8 per share — low / base / high — vs the NOK 10.88 quote.

Company terms: glossary.

Foundations

If any of these change, the thesis must be re-evaluated.

Production assets

PNGF Sud production holds ~4,600–5,300 bopd net on average across the drilling cycle. The fields decline between infill campaigns and are restored by the next one, so a year without drilling ends lower — the company guides ~4,300 net at the end of 2026 — and that dip is expected, not a breach. What must hold is the average and the restoration: a campaign that fails to lift production back toward the band breaks this foundation.
Management keeps working to turn the non-producing assets into cash (the Aje sale process; the Guinea-Bissau earn-out).

Capital discipline

Costs stay at today’s level: opex ~$12.50 per WI barrel, admin ~$8M a year.
Capex goes to PNGF (Sud and Bis).
Excess capital is distributed to shareholders.
The company stays debt-free.

Trial

The trial costs money at worst — modeled $0–75M.
Current management stays clear of allegations; the case stays about legacy conduct (Hemla Africa Holding).

Dossier highlights

The qualitative picture behind the numbers, from the company dossier — the full version holds the complete news log and sourcing.

Strengths

No debt; substantial net cash
Stable production track record from PNGF Sud despite jurisdiction
Pays out cash (NOK 4.2/share 2025, NOK 3.25/share June 2026)
Coming cash flow priced extremely low (the thesis)
US DoJ inquiry closed without action — one of the two legal overhangs already resolved

Weaknesses

Single producing asset (PNGF Sud, offshore Congo-Brazzaville); non-operated (Perenco controls operations and costs)
Congo jurisdiction risk — stable results so far, but not a stable state
Pending Økokrim corruption trial — the market's stated reason for the discount
Sells via infrequent liftings (1–2 cargoes/year) → lumpy reported results
Entitlement ratio partly outside company control (price thresholds, cost-oil cycle)

What moves the share price

Økokrim trial: court 2026-11-23, initial outcome ~Q1 2027, appeals possibly to Q4 2028 — resolution in either direction moves the stock
Nigeria (Aje) sale — advisor appointed; optionality, valued at zero in the model
Production capacity >5,000 bopd net after infill wells; next campaign planned 2027
Distribution continuation/size
Oil price (elevated July 2026 on Middle East conflict; EIA sees $65 avg 2027)

News & model changes

Stories since 2026-06-01, newest first. Bullets under a story are the model inputs that moved because of it; a date where an input moved without a story shows as "Model revision".

2026-08-29 — Model revision
- Net WI production, barrels/day — 2026 4,900 → 4,750. The 2026 estimate comes down to 4,750 bopd because PetroNor now guides a year-end exit rate of about 4,300 barrels a day net, well below the 5,045 the second quarter delivered.
- Operating expenses per WI barrel, USD — 13 → 12.5. Operating cost comes down to $12.50 per barrel after the second quarter ran at about $11.60 - a clean quarter at 93% production efficiency, and the first real corroboration of the $12 the company has claimed all along.
- Capex, USD M/year — 2026 9 → 11. 2026 capital spending moves to $11 million, which is simply what the first half actually spent, doubled - $5.5 million with no drilling programme running, so this is maintenance spend and it should hold through a second half that also has no campaign.
- Capex, USD M/year — 2027 30 → 20. 2027 capital spending finally has a company number behind it: about $20 million, a third below the $30 million placeholder that has stood since onboarding.
- Working interest — revised. PetroNor's 16.83% of the Congo field is an 84.15% holding in Hemla E&P Congo, which itself holds 20% of the licence - and that distinction now matters, because the company reports on both bases at once.
- Net cash, USD — 105,000,000 → 85,200,000. Cash of USD 85.2 million at 30 June 2026, no debt - the reported figure replaces the mid-2026 estimate of USD 105 million.
- Inventory anchor — revised. The overlift stood at 354,865 barrels on 30 June and the quarter earned 275,539 barrels of entitlement - both printed, the second in the revenue note rather than inferred from the overlift movement.
- Inventory anchor — revised. The company published its own month-by-month path out of the overlift, and it implies a build of about 85,000 barrels a month through the second half - between the ~60,000 the second quarter actually managed at $116 oil and the ~100,000 it keeps quoting as a round number.
- State's share of profit oil — 0.22 / 0.32 / 0.46 → 0.375 / 0.435 / 0.495. The State's share was refitted on quarterly data instead of five annual points, and the answer is that it barely moves with price at all.
- Cost recovery rule — revised. Cost recovery is what actually drives the variation in how many barrels PetroNor keeps - not the oil price, which was the earlier suspicion.
2026-08-28 — Q2 2026 results webcast Q&A: management put numbers on the 2027 programme for the first time — capital spending of about $20 million, infill drilling only, no major infrastructure planned — with Perenco proposing the sanctioned budget at an operating committee meeting in November. The next lifting is expected in May 2027. On OML 113, management described half a trillion cubic feet of gas and 70 million barrels of oil equivalent of 2C resources as an attractive project they expect the market to come to reflect. The presentation also published a month-by-month path out of the overlift: −271, −192, −104, −16, +70, +156 thousand barrels for July through December (presentation slide 4).
Why it matters: the call carried guidance the written report withheld. The 2027 capital number retires the model's weakest anchor — a placeholder that had survived two reports — and comes in a third below what had been assumed, which raises value rather than lowering it. The inventory path matters more: it is the company's own forecast of how fast the overlift unwinds, and it dates the next cash event, since no cargo means no revenue until May 2027.
Effect: 2027 capital spending revised $30M → $20M, with the watch moved to November's operating committee where Perenco proposes the sanctioned budget. The published inventory path then did something more valuable: it did not match, which sent the State's profit-oil share back to first principles. Every interim report prints the quarter's entitlement and carries the prior-year comparative, so 14 quarters back to the start of 2023 were extracted from PDFs already on file — against the five annual points the model had been calibrated on. Measured that way, with every input on one basis and the fiscal price backed out of the State's own royalty line, the share barely moves with price at all. What it had been absorbing is cost recovery: a carried cost pool recovering at up to 34% of production cut the reconstruction error four times more than any price effect could. Super profit oil is kept as a small step above $94/bbl because the company states the mechanism exists, not because the data insists on it. The model now runs entirely on the accounts basis, and the reconstruction moved to those 14 quarters: a 5.2% typical miss, inside 3% for most recent quarters. Fair value per share across the day: 5.67 / 16.40 / 28.84 → 4.56 / 13.19 / 22.85 NOK. Against a 10.88 price the base still implies a discount, but a much narrower one than this report has been showing.
2026-08-28 — Q2 2026 interim report: net profit USD 46.3M, cash USD 85.2M and still debt-free, net WI production 5,045 bopd at 93% efficiency. The April lifting of 964,593 bbl at $116.05 brought in USD 111.9M, and USD 50.0M went back out as the NOK 3.25/share capital repayment. Three things were new. The company guided a year-end exit rate for the first time — gross above 25,500 bopd, ~4,300 net — because no infill drilling happens in 2026 and the fields decline between campaigns; drilling returns in 2027 on Tchibouela and Tchibouela East. It expects no further oil sales in 2026, so every unsold barrel now realises at the next cargo in 2027. And OML 113 grew for free: partner PR Oil & Gas Nigeria defaulted on cash calls and its licence interest was redistributed, lifting PetroNor's stake from 52.2% to 59.6% pending regulatory approval, while advisory firm Talanger Capital was appointed to run a divestment or farm-down with acquirers already viewing data (report, presentation, announcement).
Why it matters: the quarter separated the machine from the arithmetic. Operationally everything held or beat — production mid-band, operating costs at ~$11.6 per barrel, administrative costs annualising on the $8M estimate with no sign yet of trial legal costs leaking in. The entitlement the quarter earned was 275,539 barrels against 303,877 in the first quarter, about 92,000 a month: a real but moderate decline at a $116 realisation, and inside the company's own description of the rebuild. The overlift stood at 354,865 barrels at 30 June.
Effect: the quarter's reported figures replaced estimates throughout — net cash refreshed to $85.2M, the June distribution to its stated $50.0M, and the fair-value anchor moved onto the 30 June balance sheet. The overlift chain was pinned to the printed position, which exposed a 53,533 barrel error in the pre-2026 chain, now shown as a reconciliation line instead of carried forward silently. Production for 2026 came down to 4,750 bopd against the guided exit rate, operating costs to $12.50/bbl, capital spending to $11M. And a structural error was corrected: the model had been valuing the whole licence's earnings, when 15.85% of the Congolese subsidiary belongs to a minority partner. Production had always been reported at PetroNor's own 16.83%, but revenue, entitlement and costs come from the consolidated accounts, which carry the licence's full 20% — so the partner's share was being counted as shareholders'. It now comes off on its own line in every table, and off the cash and overlift in the fair-value anchor.
2026-07-10 — Q2 2026 production update: net 5,007 bopd at 93% efficiency, up from 4,712/86% in Q1; workovers plus restored infrastructure; Q2 interim due 28 August (announcement).
Why it matters: the Q1 infrastructure interruption stayed a one-off — production is back mid-band of the foundation's 4,600–5,300 and tracks the `netWiProduction` driver's 2026 path (management guided 5,060). Also fixes the Q2 report date the next quarterly update runs on.
Effect: Q2 2026 production actual updated 5,060 (guided) → 5,007 (reported, preliminary until 28 Aug). Year income unchanged by construction — the year is anchored to the 4,900 belief and H2 quarters re-solve up (year-anchoring confirmed by Kim 2026-07-26). Fair value 5.67 / 16.4 / 28.8 NOK per share, unchanged.

Fair value vs market price

USD million	low	base	high
Cash on the last reported balance sheet (30 Jun 2026)	85.2	85.2	85.2
+ Inventory the same day (-354,865 bbl at the price of the cargo that takes them)	-41.2	-41.2	-41.2
− The minority's share of both (15.85% of the Congolese subsidiary is not ours — the earnings below already exclude it)	7.0	7.0	7.0
+ Earnings on production basis Q3 2026 → Q4 2030, discounted at 15%/yr to 2026-08-29 (show the calculation)	7.9	104.9	194.7
+ Reserves beyond 2030 — audited 2P left after the model years plus the credited share of 2C, flat 4,500 bopd to exhaustion, at each scenario's own 2030 economics	24.4	58.5	115.6
= Fair value	69.3	200.5	347.3
= Fair value, NOK per share (× USDNOK 9.36 ÷ 142.4M shares)	4.6	13.2	22.8

low 4.6

base 13.2

high 22.8

▲quote 10.88

Nothing is counted twice: earnings before Q3 2026 already sit inside the printed cash and inventory. Discounting runs to the generation date at 15%/yr — Kim's required return (a driver). No terminal value: the reserves row stops when the credited barrels run out (2034–2036 by scenario) — no perpetuity, no growth assumption.

Keep in mind

Valued at zero: the Aje complex in Nigeria — the 52.2% OML 113 stake plus a $14.4M share-settlement claim against Aje Production AS (31 March 2026, accruing); value arrives only if Aje is sold — sale process running, advisor appointed.
Valued at zero: the Guinea-Bissau earn-outs — 2 × $30M, paid only on development milestones.
Not credited: 1C/3C resources, ~31 BCF of power gas, and recovery-factor upside (only ~22% of the 2.3 billion barrels in place has been recovered) — the 2C conversion share is the only unbooked volume priced.
The potential Økokrim fine is inside the earnings above, but crudely: $0 / $20M / $75M by scenario, placed Q2 2027 — the true amount is virtually impossible to estimate in advance.

Discounting, quarter by quarter

Each quarter's earnings on production basis × the discount factor = its value today. Factor = 1 ÷ 1.15^years, years measured from the generation date (2026-08-29) to the quarter's end — 15%/yr is Kim's required return (a driver). A quarter that has already ended but not yet reported has a factor above 1: its value was earned before today, it just isn't printed yet.

Quarter	ends	years from 2026-08-29	× factor	earnings, USD M			discounted, USD M
Quarter	ends	years from 2026-08-29	× factor	low	base	high	low	base	high
Q3 2026	30 Sep 2026	0.09	0.988	20.5	19.6	20.5	20.2	19.4	20.3
Q4 2026	31 Dec 2026	0.34	0.954	5.2	9.0	14.1	4.9	8.6	13.5
Q1 2027	31 Mar 2027	0.59	0.921	3.7	7.9	13.7	3.4	7.3	12.7
Q2 2027	30 Jun 2027	0.84	0.890	-71.2	-12.0	13.9	-63.4	-10.7	12.4
Q3 2027	30 Sep 2027	1.09	0.859	3.9	8.2	14.1	3.3	7.0	12.2
Q4 2027	31 Dec 2027	1.34	0.829	3.9	8.2	14.1	3.2	6.8	11.7
Q1 2028	31 Mar 2028	1.59	0.801	4.6	8.4	14.2	3.7	6.7	11.4
Q2 2028	30 Jun 2028	1.84	0.774	4.6	8.4	14.2	3.6	6.5	11.0
Q3 2028	30 Sep 2028	2.09	0.747	4.7	8.5	14.4	3.5	6.4	10.8
Q4 2028	31 Dec 2028	2.34	0.721	4.7	8.5	14.4	3.4	6.1	10.4
Q1 2029	31 Mar 2029	2.59	0.697	4.5	8.3	14.0	3.1	5.8	9.7
Q2 2029	30 Jun 2029	2.84	0.673	4.6	8.5	14.1	3.1	5.7	9.5
Q3 2029	30 Sep 2029	3.09	0.649	4.7	8.6	14.3	3.0	5.6	9.3
Q4 2029	31 Dec 2029	3.34	0.627	4.7	8.6	14.3	2.9	5.4	9.0
Q1 2030	31 Mar 2030	3.59	0.606	4.2	7.8	13.2	2.5	4.8	8.0
Q2 2030	30 Jun 2030	3.84	0.585	4.3	8.0	13.4	2.5	4.7	7.8
Q3 2030	30 Sep 2030	4.09	0.565	4.3	8.1	13.6	2.5	4.6	7.7
Q4 2030	31 Dec 2030	4.34	0.545	4.3	8.1	13.6	2.4	4.4	7.4
Sum — the strip's earnings row				20.0	140.6	258.5	7.9	104.9	194.7
Reserves beyond 2030 — flat 4,500 bopd, priced at each scenario's 2030 economics: $10.4 / $19.5 / $32.7 per barrel
2031	31 Dec 2031	5.34	0.474	17.1	32.0	53.8	8.1	15.2	25.5
2032	31 Dec 2032	6.34	0.412	17.1	32.0	53.8	7.1	13.2	22.2
2033	31 Dec 2033	7.34	0.358	17.1	32.0	53.8	6.1	11.5	19.3
2034	31 Dec 2034	8.34	0.312	10.0	32.0	53.8	3.1	10.0	16.8
2035	31 Dec 2035	9.34	0.271	—	32.0	53.8	—	8.7	14.6
2036	31 Dec 2036	10.34	0.236	—	0.1	53.8	—	0.0	12.7
2037	31 Dec 2037	11.34	0.205	—	—	22.4	—	—	4.6
Sum — the strip's reserves row				61.4	160.1	345.1	24.4	58.5	115.6

The discounted sums are the strip's "+ Earnings on production basis" and "+ Reserves beyond 2030" rows. Tail barrels = audited 2P minus what the model years produce, plus the credited 2C share (0 / 25 / 50% by scenario); a scenario shows "—" once its barrels are exhausted.

Drivers — the beliefs behind the numbers

Every estimate in this report is produced by the handful of inputs below. They are beliefs, not facts — each is recorded with its date, source and reasoning, and revised only deliberately, never silently. The gray line under each value is the current reasoning; low/base/high express genuine uncertainty.

	low	base	high
Realized oil price, USD/bbl — every barrel not yet covered by a cargo	55	70	90
Sales are Brent-linked; the April overlift pre-sold H1 and most of Q3 2026 at $116.05, and the company expects no further oil sales in 2026 — so every uncovered barrel realizes at the next cargo in 2027. The EIA's August outlook sees Brent easing to $69 for 2027 as Middle East supply recovers; today's ~$88 carries a war premium that outlook removes.
Net WI production, barrels/day, yearly average 2026→2030	4,750 → 5,000 → 4,900 → 4,700 → 4,500 (2026→2030)
Q2 2026 came in at 5,045 bopd at 93% efficiency, but there is no drilling this year, so the fields decline naturally: the company guides a year-end exit rate near 4,300. The 2027 plateau assumes the campaign returning that year delivers like the 2025 one did (+6,500 bopd gross); gentle decline after. 2P reserves ≈ 8 years at these rates.
Operating expenses per WI barrel, USD	12.5	12.5	12.5
Q2 2026 ran at ~$11.6/bbl — a clean quarter, and the first corroboration of the $12 the company claims; Q1's $14.1 was inflated by the 16-day outage. Still set above the company's figure: Perenco controls the cost base (non-operated).
Administrative expenses, USD M per year	8	8	8
2025 actual: $8.0M (down from $14M) after the US DoJ closure and restructuring; Q1 2026 annualizes to $7.6M. Trial legal costs could push this up through 2027–28.
Capex paid, USD M per year	11 → 20 → 15 → 10 (2026→2029+)
2026 is the first half's actual spend doubled ($5.5M — maintenance level, no campaign running). 2027 now carries the company's own expectation of ~$20M for an infill-only programme, replacing the $30M placeholder scaled from the 2025 five-well campaign; management says nothing major is planned on infrastructure. Perenco proposes the sanctioned budget at a November operating committee.
Legal contingency, USD M — the Økokrim trial priced, one-off placed Q2 2027	75	20	0
The low outcome carries the punitive fine ($75M), the high outcome an acquittal ($0) — the company categorically contests, and the parallel US DoJ inquiry closed without action; base = a Yara-scale Norwegian corporate fine (~NOK 300M). Licence loss or management-integrity revelations are NOT priced here — they break a thesis foundation and force re-evaluation instead.
Discount rate, per year — Kim's required return (the fair-value strip above)	15%	15%	15%
15 rather than a textbook ~20: the illiquidity layer doesn't bite at his position size, and world-risk (price, production, trial) already lives in low/base/high and the legal driver — the rate covers time value, model error and what no scenario models.
2C → 2P conversion share — how much of the 9.3 million barrels of PNGF contingent resources (Sud 7.2 + Bis 2.1) the fair value credits	0%	25%	50%
Deliberately conservative against the record (reserve replacement ~250% since 2017; 93% in 2024 with wells sanctioned, 14% in 2025 without): low = the already-paid-for 2027 campaign adds nothing beyond booked 2P; base ≈ that one campaign delivering like 2025's did; high = the infill machine keeps sanctioning while Bis stays dormant.

Quarter by quarter

PetroNor sells via one–two liftings a year, so reported income says little about a single quarter. This table follows the barrels instead — looking past the noise of liftings to a true picture of how the quarter actually performed: the value created in that quarter. It tracks what the field produced, what the State took (royalty, cost oil, profit oil), and what PetroNor earned into inventory.

Earned barrels are valued at the price of the cargo that sold them: the April 2026 overlift pre-sold H1 and most of Q3 production at $116.05, so those quarters carry a settled price even without a lifting of their own. Barrels no cargo has covered yet use the scenario's price estimate.

Barrels — production to entitlement
	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Q3 2026	Q4 2026	Q1 2027	Q2 2027
Gross field production, barrels/day	24,400	27,100	28,100	30,000	27,400	27,400	29,700	29,700
Net WI production, barrels/day (16.83% of gross)	4,112	4,564	4,721	5,045	4,617	4,617	5,000	5,000
Net WI production, barrels (whole quarter)	378,304	419,888	424,890	459,095	425,000	425,000	450,000	455,000
− State's take, barrels (royalty + tax oil, paid in oil)	−169,877	−192,109	−200,920	−270,028	−203,000	−211,000	−215,000	−218,000
= Entitlement earned, barrels	279,682	306,867	304,000	275,539	302,000	294,000	320,000	323,000
Earnings on production basis (USD million)
	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Q3 2026	Q4 2026	Q1 2027	Q2 2027
Price valuing earned barrels, USD/bbl	61.3	61.3	116.0	116.0	116.0	≈57.1	55.0	55.0
Earned value (entitlement × price)	17.2	18.8	35.3	32.0	35.0	16.8	17.6	17.8
− Operating expenses	6.5	3.6	6.0	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.6	5.7
− Administrative expenses	0.9	1.8	1.9	2.2	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0
= Economic EBITDA	9.8	13.4	27.4	24.5	27.7	9.5	10.0	10.1
− Capex paid	7.6	6.8	2.3	3.2	2.8	2.8	5.0	5.0
− Decommissioning escrow (rate × produced barrels)	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
− The partner's share of the field result (PetroNor owns 84% of the company holding the licence)	0.5	1.3	4.2	3.7	4.2	1.3	1.1	1.1
− Legal contingency (trial outcome, placed Q2 2027)	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	75.0
= Earnings on production basis	1.6	5.1	20.6	17.4	20.5	5.2	3.7	-71.2
Per share, USD	0.01	0.04	0.14	0.12	0.14	0.04	0.03	-0.50
Cash (USD million) — bridge from production-basis earnings to the reported cash balance
	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Q3 2026	Q4 2026	Q1 2027	Q2 2027
= Earnings on production basis (from above)	1.6	5.1	20.6	17.4	20.5	5.2	3.7	-71.2
− Earned value (barrels valued, not yet cash)	17.2	18.8	35.3	32.0	35.0	16.8	17.6	17.8
+ Lifting cash received	—	33.1	—	111.9	—	—	—	—
− Distributions to shareholders	—	—	—	50.0	—	—	—	—
± Working capital & other (plug in reported quarters)	+0.9	-6.4	-0.2	-6.1	—	—	—	—
= Change in cash	-14.7	13.0	-14.9	41.2	-14.5	-11.6	-13.9	-89.0
Cash at start	60.6	45.9	58.9	44.0	85.2	70.7	59.1	45.2
= Cash at end	45.9	58.9	44.0	85.2	70.7	59.1	45.2	-43.8
Inventory at the Djeno terminal (barrels)
	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Q3 2026	Q4 2026	Q1 2027	Q2 2027
Inventory start	26,725	306,407	73,195	377,195	-355,000	-53,000	240,000	560,000
+ Entitlement earned	+279,682	+306,867	+304,000	+275,539	+302,000	+294,000	+320,000	+323,000
− Lifting, barrels	—	−540,079	—	−964,593	—	possible late Q4	—	—
@ realized price, USD/bbl	—	61.32	—	116.05	—	—	—	—
± Reconciliation to the printed stock position	—	—	—	−43,006	—	—	—	—
= Inventory end	306,407	73,195	377,195	-354,865	-53,000	240,000	560,000	883,000
Price valuing inventory, USD/bbl (cargo that takes it, else estimate)	61.3	116.0	116.0	116.0	116.0	55.0	55.0	55.0
= Inventory value, USD M (stock × price above)	18.8	8.5	43.8	-41.2	-6.2	13.2	30.8	48.6
Valuation
	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Q3 2026	Q4 2026	Q1 2027	Q2 2027
Cash + inventory value, USD M	64.7	67.4	87.8	44.0	64.5	72.3	76.0	4.7
Cash + inventory per share, USD	0.45	0.47	0.62	0.31	0.45	0.51	0.53	0.03
Earnings on production basis per share, USD (trailing 4 quarters)	—	0.10	0.22	0.31	0.45	0.45	0.33	-0.29

How to read

white column reported quarter
amber column partially reported quarter
blue column estimate quarter
bold — disclosed by the company
normal — derived arithmetic from disclosed numbers
grey — model estimate

Year by year

The same table as the quarters above, in year columns: reported history 2021–2025 next to the model years 2026–2030. A model year is simply its four quarters added together, so the two views cannot disagree.

Cash: when the money arrived

Lifting cash in history years is lifted barrels × the year's realized price. When the money arrived in a different year — the December cargoes were paid the following January — the timing difference sits in the "± Working capital & other" row. Distributions show only what was paid or announced.

Inventory: pinned to the printed positions

Year-end inventory is pinned to what the company printed. For 2020–2023 that is the stock note in each annual report. For end-2024 no barrel count was printed — only a $35.8M overlift liability: PetroNor had lifted more barrels than it had earned and owed them back. Dividing that liability by the December 2024 cargo's price ($72.82) converts it to barrels: −491,376. The 2025 quarterly reports then show the liability being repaid at exactly the pace those barrels predict, which confirms the conversion.

The barrels can also be counted by plain arithmetic: last year's stock + barrels earned − barrels lifted. Where that count misses the printed position, the difference is shown openly on the "± Reconciliation to the printed stock position" row — printed numbers win. 2022 carries a real one: the printed stock is 129k barrels higher than the count, an unresolved break in the 2022 accounts (every lead in the filings has been chased without an answer).

*From 2027 the model assumes production is sold in-period: the year's lifting equals its entitlement at the scenario price, inventory stays flat and cash simply accumulates the year's production-basis earnings — no future liftings, distributions or financing are guessed.

Barrels — production to entitlement
	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Gross field production, barrels/day	20,700	23,900	30,700	28,700	25,700	28,200	29,700	29,100	27,900	26,700
Net WI production, barrels/day (16.83% of gross, average)	3,479	4,021	5,167	4,827	4,317	4,749	5,000	4,900	4,700	4,500
Net WI production, barrels (whole year)	1,270,000	1,467,700	1,886,000	1,762,000	1,575,761	1,734,000	1,825,000	1,793,000	1,716,000	1,643,000
− State's take, barrels (royalty + tax oil, paid in oil)	−687,674	−843,652	−845,118	−891,421	−767,912	−885,000	−873,000	−859,000	−881,000	−839,000
= Entitlement earned, barrels	821,536	900,495	1,396,118	1,202,459	1,104,650	1,175,000	1,296,000	1,272,000	1,158,000	1,113,000
Earnings on production basis (USD million)
	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Price valuing earned barrels, USD/bbl	69.3	91.0	78.3	77.9	61.3	≈101.3	55.0	55.0	55.0	55.0
Earned value (entitlement × price)	56.9	81.9	109.3	93.7	67.7	119.0	71.3	70.0	63.7	61.2
− Operating expenses	4.4	16.6	20.8	20.0	20.6	21.9	22.8	22.4	21.4	20.5
− Administrative expenses	13.1	14.4	11.4	14.0	8.0	8.1	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0
= Economic EBITDA	39.4	50.9	77.1	59.8	39.1	89.0	40.5	39.5	34.3	32.7
− Capex paid	19.8	35.8	38.3	13.1	19.4	11.0	20.0	15.0	10.0	10.0
− Decommissioning escrow (rate × produced barrels)	—	—	0.5	0.9	0.8	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.8
− The partner's share of the field result (PetroNor owns 84% of the company holding the licence)	5.2	4.7	7.9	9.5	4.3	13.5	4.4	5.0	5.0	4.7
− Legal contingency (trial outcome, placed Q2 2027)	—	—	—	—	—	—	75.0	—	—	—
= Earnings on production basis	14.5	10.5	30.5	36.3	14.6	63.6	-59.8	18.6	18.4	17.1
Per share, USD	0.10	0.07	0.21	0.26	0.10	0.45	-0.42	0.13	0.13	0.12
Cash (USD million) — bridge from production-basis earnings to the reported cash balance
	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
= Earnings on production basis (from above)	14.5	10.5	30.5	36.3	14.6	63.6	-59.8	18.6	18.4	17.1
− Earned value (barrels valued, not yet cash)	56.9	81.9	109.3	93.7	67.7	119.0	71.3	70.0	63.7	61.2
+ Lifting cash received	57.6	72.8	120.9	139.9	33.1	111.9	71.3	70.0	63.7	61.2
− Distributions to shareholders	—	—	—	—	55.9	50.0	—	—	—	—
± Working capital & other (plug in reported years)	+2.6	-8.4	-20.6	-49.1	+55.1	-6.3	—	—	—	—
= Change in cash	17.7	-7.0	21.4	33.5	-20.8	0.2	-59.8	18.6	18.4	17.1
Cash at start	14.1	31.8	24.8	46.2	79.7	58.9	59.1	-0.7	17.9	36.3
= Cash at end	31.8	24.8	46.2	79.7	58.9	59.1	-0.7	17.9	36.3	53.4
Inventory at the Djeno terminal (barrels)
	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Inventory start	38,730	24,256	253,992	106,211	-491,376	73,000	240,000	240,000	240,000	240,000
+ Entitlement earned	+821,536	+900,495	+1,396,118	+1,202,459	+1,104,650	+1,175,000	+1,296,000	+1,272,000	+1,158,000	+1,113,000
− Lifting, barrels	−831,089	−800,177	−1,543,910	−1,795,459	−540,079	−964,593	−1,296,000*	−1,272,000*	−1,158,000*	−1,113,000*
@ realized price, USD/bbl	69.31	90.99	78.30	77.94	61.29	116.01	55.00	55.00	55.00	55.00
± Reconciliation to the printed stock position	−4,921	+129,418	+11	−4,587	—	—	—	—	—	—
= Inventory end	24,256	253,992	106,211	-491,376	73,195	240,000	240,000	240,000	240,000	240,000
Price valuing inventory, USD/bbl (cargo that takes it, else estimate)	91.0	78.3	77.9	72.8	116.0	55.0	55.0	55.0	55.0	55.0
= Inventory value, USD M (stock × price above)	2.2	19.9	8.3	-35.8	8.5	13.2	13.2	13.2	13.2	13.2
Valuation
	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Cash + inventory value, USD M	34.0	44.7	54.5	43.9	67.4	72.3	12.5	31.1	49.5	66.6
Cash + inventory per share, USD	0.24	0.31	0.38	0.31	0.47	0.51	0.09	0.22	0.35	0.47
Earnings on production basis per share, USD	0.10	0.07	0.21	0.26	0.10	0.45	-0.42	0.13	0.13	0.12

How to read

white column reported quarter
amber column partially reported quarter
blue column estimate quarter
bold — disclosed by the company
normal — derived arithmetic from disclosed numbers
grey — model estimate

Quarter by quarter

Barrels — production to entitlement
	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Q3 2026	Q4 2026	Q1 2027	Q2 2027
Gross field production, barrels/day	24,400	27,100	28,100	30,000	27,400	27,400	29,700	29,700
Net WI production, barrels/day (16.83% of gross)	4,112	4,564	4,721	5,045	4,617	4,617	5,000	5,000
Net WI production, barrels (whole quarter)	378,304	419,888	424,890	459,095	425,000	425,000	450,000	455,000
− State's take, barrels (royalty + tax oil, paid in oil)	−169,877	−192,109	−200,920	−270,028	−212,000	−212,000	−212,000	−215,000
= Entitlement earned, barrels	279,682	306,867	304,000	275,539	293,000	293,000	323,000	326,000
Earnings on production basis (USD million)
	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Q3 2026	Q4 2026	Q1 2027	Q2 2027
Price valuing earned barrels, USD/bbl	61.3	61.3	116.0	116.0	116.1	≈73.0	70.0	70.0
Earned value (entitlement × price)	17.2	18.8	35.3	32.0	33.9	21.4	22.6	22.8
− Operating expenses	6.5	3.6	6.0	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.6	5.7
− Administrative expenses	0.9	1.8	1.9	2.2	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0
= Economic EBITDA	9.8	13.4	27.4	24.5	26.6	14.1	15.0	15.1
− Capex paid	7.6	6.8	2.3	3.2	2.8	2.8	5.0	5.0
− Decommissioning escrow (rate × produced barrels)	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
− The partner's share of the field result (PetroNor owns 84% of the company holding the licence)	0.5	1.3	4.2	3.7	4.1	2.1	1.9	1.9
− Legal contingency (trial outcome, placed Q2 2027)	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.0
= Earnings on production basis	1.6	5.1	20.6	17.4	19.6	9.0	7.9	-12.0
Per share, USD	0.01	0.04	0.14	0.12	0.14	0.06	0.06	-0.08
Cash (USD million) — bridge from production-basis earnings to the reported cash balance
	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Q3 2026	Q4 2026	Q1 2027	Q2 2027
= Earnings on production basis (from above)	1.6	5.1	20.6	17.4	19.6	9.0	7.9	-12.0
− Earned value (barrels valued, not yet cash)	17.2	18.8	35.3	32.0	33.9	21.4	22.6	22.8
+ Lifting cash received	—	33.1	—	111.9	—	—	—	—
− Distributions to shareholders	—	—	—	50.0	—	—	—	—
± Working capital & other (plug in reported quarters)	+0.9	-6.4	-0.2	-6.1	—	—	—	—
= Change in cash	-14.7	13.0	-14.9	41.2	-14.3	-12.3	-14.7	-34.8
Cash at start	60.6	45.9	58.9	44.0	85.2	70.9	58.5	43.8
= Cash at end	45.9	58.9	44.0	85.2	70.9	58.5	43.8	9.0
Inventory at the Djeno terminal (barrels)
	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Q3 2026	Q4 2026	Q1 2027	Q2 2027
Inventory start	26,725	306,407	73,195	377,195	-355,000	-62,000	230,000	553,000
+ Entitlement earned	+279,682	+306,867	+304,000	+275,539	+293,000	+293,000	+323,000	+326,000
− Lifting, barrels	—	−540,079	—	−964,593	—	possible late Q4	—	—
@ realized price, USD/bbl	—	61.32	—	116.05	—	—	—	—
± Reconciliation to the printed stock position	—	—	—	−43,006	—	—	—	—
= Inventory end	306,407	73,195	377,195	-354,865	-62,000	230,000	553,000	879,000
Price valuing inventory, USD/bbl (cargo that takes it, else estimate)	61.3	116.0	116.0	116.0	116.0	70.0	70.0	70.0
= Inventory value, USD M (stock × price above)	18.8	8.5	43.8	-41.2	-7.2	16.1	38.7	61.5
Valuation
	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Q3 2026	Q4 2026	Q1 2027	Q2 2027
Cash + inventory value, USD M	64.7	67.4	87.8	44.0	63.6	74.6	82.5	70.5
Cash + inventory per share, USD	0.45	0.47	0.62	0.31	0.45	0.52	0.58	0.50
Earnings on production basis per share, USD (trailing 4 quarters)	—	0.10	0.22	0.31	0.44	0.47	0.38	0.17

How to read

white column reported quarter
amber column partially reported quarter
blue column estimate quarter
bold — disclosed by the company
normal — derived arithmetic from disclosed numbers
grey — model estimate

Year by year

Cash: when the money arrived

Inventory: pinned to the printed positions

Barrels — production to entitlement
	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Gross field production, barrels/day	20,700	23,900	30,700	28,700	25,700	28,200	29,700	29,100	27,900	26,700
Net WI production, barrels/day (16.83% of gross, average)	3,479	4,021	5,167	4,827	4,317	4,749	5,000	4,900	4,700	4,500
Net WI production, barrels (whole year)	1,270,000	1,467,700	1,886,000	1,762,000	1,575,761	1,734,000	1,825,000	1,793,000	1,716,000	1,643,000
− State's take, barrels (royalty + tax oil, paid in oil)	−687,674	−843,652	−845,118	−891,421	−767,912	−895,000	−861,000	−875,000	−864,000	−825,000
= Entitlement earned, barrels	821,536	900,495	1,396,118	1,202,459	1,104,650	1,165,000	1,308,000	1,256,000	1,174,000	1,127,000
Earnings on production basis (USD million)
	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Price valuing earned barrels, USD/bbl	69.3	91.0	78.3	77.9	61.3	≈105.2	70.0	70.0	70.0	70.0
Earned value (entitlement × price)	56.9	81.9	109.3	93.7	67.7	122.6	91.5	87.9	82.2	78.9
− Operating expenses	4.4	16.6	20.8	20.0	20.6	21.9	22.8	22.4	21.4	20.5
− Administrative expenses	13.1	14.4	11.4	14.0	8.0	8.1	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0
= Economic EBITDA	39.4	50.9	77.1	59.8	39.1	92.6	60.7	57.5	52.8	50.4
− Capex paid	19.8	35.8	38.3	13.1	19.4	11.0	20.0	15.0	10.0	10.0
− Decommissioning escrow (rate × produced barrels)	—	—	0.5	0.9	0.8	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.8
− The partner's share of the field result (PetroNor owns 84% of the company holding the licence)	5.2	4.7	7.9	9.5	4.3	14.1	7.6	7.9	7.9	7.5
− Legal contingency (trial outcome, placed Q2 2027)	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.0	—	—	—
= Earnings on production basis	14.5	10.5	30.5	36.3	14.6	66.6	12.2	33.7	34.0	32.0
Per share, USD	0.10	0.07	0.21	0.26	0.10	0.47	0.09	0.24	0.24	0.22
Cash (USD million) — bridge from production-basis earnings to the reported cash balance
	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
= Earnings on production basis (from above)	14.5	10.5	30.5	36.3	14.6	66.6	12.2	33.7	34.0	32.0
− Earned value (barrels valued, not yet cash)	56.9	81.9	109.3	93.7	67.7	122.6	91.5	87.9	82.2	78.9
+ Lifting cash received	57.6	72.8	120.9	139.9	33.1	111.9	91.5	87.9	82.2	78.9
− Distributions to shareholders	—	—	—	—	55.9	50.0	—	—	—	—
± Working capital & other (plug in reported years)	+2.6	-8.4	-20.6	-49.1	+55.1	-6.3	—	—	—	—
= Change in cash	17.7	-7.0	21.4	33.5	-20.8	-0.4	12.2	33.7	34.0	32.0
Cash at start	14.1	31.8	24.8	46.2	79.7	58.9	58.5	70.7	104.5	138.5
= Cash at end	31.8	24.8	46.2	79.7	58.9	58.5	70.7	104.5	138.5	170.5
Inventory at the Djeno terminal (barrels)
	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Inventory start	38,730	24,256	253,992	106,211	-491,376	73,000	230,000	230,000	230,000	230,000
+ Entitlement earned	+821,536	+900,495	+1,396,118	+1,202,459	+1,104,650	+1,165,000	+1,308,000	+1,256,000	+1,174,000	+1,127,000
− Lifting, barrels	−831,089	−800,177	−1,543,910	−1,795,459	−540,079	−964,593	−1,308,000*	−1,256,000*	−1,174,000*	−1,127,000*
@ realized price, USD/bbl	69.31	90.99	78.30	77.94	61.29	116.01	70.00	70.00	70.00	70.00
± Reconciliation to the printed stock position	−4,921	+129,418	+11	−4,587	—	—	—	—	—	—
= Inventory end	24,256	253,992	106,211	-491,376	73,195	230,000	230,000	230,000	230,000	230,000
Price valuing inventory, USD/bbl (cargo that takes it, else estimate)	91.0	78.3	77.9	72.8	116.0	70.0	70.0	70.0	70.0	70.0
= Inventory value, USD M (stock × price above)	2.2	19.9	8.3	-35.8	8.5	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.1
Valuation
	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Cash + inventory value, USD M	34.0	44.7	54.5	43.9	67.4	74.6	86.8	120.6	154.6	186.6
Cash + inventory per share, USD	0.24	0.31	0.38	0.31	0.47	0.52	0.61	0.85	1.09	1.31
Earnings on production basis per share, USD	0.10	0.07	0.21	0.26	0.10	0.47	0.09	0.24	0.24	0.22

How to read

white column reported quarter
amber column partially reported quarter
blue column estimate quarter
bold — disclosed by the company
normal — derived arithmetic from disclosed numbers
grey — model estimate

Quarter by quarter

Barrels — production to entitlement
	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Q3 2026	Q4 2026	Q1 2027	Q2 2027
Gross field production, barrels/day	24,400	27,100	28,100	30,000	27,400	27,400	29,700	29,700
Net WI production, barrels/day (16.83% of gross)	4,112	4,564	4,721	5,045	4,617	4,617	5,000	5,000
Net WI production, barrels (whole quarter)	378,304	419,888	424,890	459,095	425,000	425,000	450,000	455,000
− State's take, barrels (royalty + tax oil, paid in oil)	−169,877	−192,109	−200,920	−270,028	−203,000	−203,000	−206,000	−209,000
= Entitlement earned, barrels	279,682	306,867	304,000	275,539	302,000	302,000	328,000	332,000
Earnings on production basis (USD million)
	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Q3 2026	Q4 2026	Q1 2027	Q2 2027
Price valuing earned barrels, USD/bbl	61.3	61.3	116.0	116.0	116.0	≈90.9	90.0	90.0
Earned value (entitlement × price)	17.2	18.8	35.3	32.0	35.0	27.4	29.6	29.9
− Operating expenses	6.5	3.6	6.0	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.6	5.7
− Administrative expenses	0.9	1.8	1.9	2.2	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0
= Economic EBITDA	9.8	13.4	27.4	24.5	27.7	20.1	21.9	22.2
− Capex paid	7.6	6.8	2.3	3.2	2.8	2.8	5.0	5.0
− Decommissioning escrow (rate × produced barrels)	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
− The partner's share of the field result (PetroNor owns 84% of the company holding the licence)	0.5	1.3	4.2	3.7	4.2	3.0	3.0	3.0
− Legal contingency (trial outcome, placed Q2 2027)	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
= Earnings on production basis	1.6	5.1	20.6	17.4	20.5	14.1	13.7	13.9
Per share, USD	0.01	0.04	0.14	0.12	0.14	0.10	0.10	0.10
Cash (USD million) — bridge from production-basis earnings to the reported cash balance
	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Q3 2026	Q4 2026	Q1 2027	Q2 2027
= Earnings on production basis (from above)	1.6	5.1	20.6	17.4	20.5	14.1	13.7	13.9
− Earned value (barrels valued, not yet cash)	17.2	18.8	35.3	32.0	35.0	27.4	29.6	29.9
+ Lifting cash received	—	33.1	—	111.9	—	—	—	—
− Distributions to shareholders	—	—	—	50.0	—	—	—	—
± Working capital & other (plug in reported quarters)	+0.9	-6.4	-0.2	-6.1	—	—	—	—
= Change in cash	-14.7	13.0	-14.9	41.2	-14.5	-13.3	-15.8	-15.9
Cash at start	60.6	45.9	58.9	44.0	85.2	70.7	57.4	41.6
= Cash at end	45.9	58.9	44.0	85.2	70.7	57.4	41.6	25.6
Inventory at the Djeno terminal (barrels)
	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Q3 2026	Q4 2026	Q1 2027	Q2 2027
Inventory start	26,725	306,407	73,195	377,195	-355,000	-53,000	249,000	577,000
+ Entitlement earned	+279,682	+306,867	+304,000	+275,539	+302,000	+302,000	+328,000	+332,000
− Lifting, barrels	—	−540,079	—	−964,593	—	possible late Q4	—	—
@ realized price, USD/bbl	—	61.32	—	116.05	—	—	—	—
± Reconciliation to the printed stock position	—	—	—	−43,006	—	—	—	—
= Inventory end	306,407	73,195	377,195	-354,865	-53,000	249,000	577,000	909,000
Price valuing inventory, USD/bbl (cargo that takes it, else estimate)	61.3	116.0	116.0	116.0	116.0	90.0	90.0	90.0
= Inventory value, USD M (stock × price above)	18.8	8.5	43.8	-41.2	-6.2	22.4	51.9	81.8
Valuation
	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Q3 2026	Q4 2026	Q1 2027	Q2 2027
Cash + inventory value, USD M	64.7	67.4	87.8	44.0	64.5	79.8	93.5	107.4
Cash + inventory per share, USD	0.45	0.47	0.62	0.31	0.45	0.56	0.66	0.75
Earnings on production basis per share, USD (trailing 4 quarters)	—	0.10	0.22	0.31	0.45	0.51	0.46	0.44

How to read

white column reported quarter
amber column partially reported quarter
blue column estimate quarter
bold — disclosed by the company
normal — derived arithmetic from disclosed numbers
grey — model estimate

Year by year

Cash: when the money arrived

Inventory: pinned to the printed positions

Barrels — production to entitlement
	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Gross field production, barrels/day	20,700	23,900	30,700	28,700	25,700	28,200	29,700	29,100	27,900	26,700
Net WI production, barrels/day (16.83% of gross, average)	3,479	4,021	5,167	4,827	4,317	4,749	5,000	4,900	4,700	4,500
Net WI production, barrels (whole year)	1,270,000	1,467,700	1,886,000	1,762,000	1,575,761	1,734,000	1,825,000	1,793,000	1,716,000	1,643,000
− State's take, barrels (royalty + tax oil, paid in oil)	−687,674	−843,652	−845,118	−891,421	−767,912	−877,000	−838,000	−843,000	−825,000	−788,000
= Entitlement earned, barrels	821,536	900,495	1,396,118	1,202,459	1,104,650	1,183,000	1,331,000	1,288,000	1,214,000	1,164,000
Earnings on production basis (USD million)
	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Price valuing earned barrels, USD/bbl	69.3	91.0	78.3	77.9	61.3	≈109.6	90.0	90.0	90.0	90.0
Earned value (entitlement × price)	56.9	81.9	109.3	93.7	67.7	129.7	119.7	115.9	109.3	104.8
− Operating expenses	4.4	16.6	20.8	20.0	20.6	21.9	22.8	22.4	21.4	20.5
− Administrative expenses	13.1	14.4	11.4	14.0	8.0	8.1	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0
= Economic EBITDA	39.4	50.9	77.1	59.8	39.1	99.7	88.9	85.5	79.8	76.2
− Capex paid	19.8	35.8	38.3	13.1	19.4	11.0	20.0	15.0	10.0	10.0
− Decommissioning escrow (rate × produced barrels)	—	—	0.5	0.9	0.8	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.8
− The partner's share of the field result (PetroNor owns 84% of the company holding the licence)	5.2	4.7	7.9	9.5	4.3	15.2	12.0	12.3	12.2	11.6
− Legal contingency (trial outcome, placed Q2 2027)	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
= Earnings on production basis	14.5	10.5	30.5	36.3	14.6	72.6	56.0	57.3	56.8	53.8
Per share, USD	0.10	0.07	0.21	0.26	0.10	0.51	0.39	0.40	0.40	0.38
Cash (USD million) — bridge from production-basis earnings to the reported cash balance
	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
= Earnings on production basis (from above)	14.5	10.5	30.5	36.3	14.6	72.6	56.0	57.3	56.8	53.8
− Earned value (barrels valued, not yet cash)	56.9	81.9	109.3	93.7	67.7	129.7	119.7	115.9	109.3	104.8
+ Lifting cash received	57.6	72.8	120.9	139.9	33.1	111.9	119.7	115.9	109.3	104.8
− Distributions to shareholders	—	—	—	—	55.9	50.0	—	—	—	—
± Working capital & other (plug in reported years)	+2.6	-8.4	-20.6	-49.1	+55.1	-6.3	—	—	—	—
= Change in cash	17.7	-7.0	21.4	33.5	-20.8	-1.5	56.0	57.3	56.8	53.8
Cash at start	14.1	31.8	24.8	46.2	79.7	58.9	57.4	113.4	170.7	227.4
= Cash at end	31.8	24.8	46.2	79.7	58.9	57.4	113.4	170.7	227.4	281.2
Inventory at the Djeno terminal (barrels)
	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Inventory start	38,730	24,256	253,992	106,211	-491,376	73,000	249,000	249,000	249,000	249,000
+ Entitlement earned	+821,536	+900,495	+1,396,118	+1,202,459	+1,104,650	+1,183,000	+1,331,000	+1,288,000	+1,214,000	+1,164,000
− Lifting, barrels	−831,089	−800,177	−1,543,910	−1,795,459	−540,079	−964,593	−1,331,000*	−1,288,000*	−1,214,000*	−1,164,000*
@ realized price, USD/bbl	69.31	90.99	78.30	77.94	61.29	116.01	90.00	90.00	90.00	90.00
± Reconciliation to the printed stock position	−4,921	+129,418	+11	−4,587	—	—	—	—	—	—
= Inventory end	24,256	253,992	106,211	-491,376	73,195	249,000	249,000	249,000	249,000	249,000
Price valuing inventory, USD/bbl (cargo that takes it, else estimate)	91.0	78.3	77.9	72.8	116.0	90.0	90.0	90.0	90.0	90.0
= Inventory value, USD M (stock × price above)	2.2	19.9	8.3	-35.8	8.5	22.4	22.4	22.4	22.4	22.4
Valuation
	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Cash + inventory value, USD M	34.0	44.7	54.5	43.9	67.4	79.8	135.7	193.0	249.8	303.6
Cash + inventory per share, USD	0.24	0.31	0.38	0.31	0.47	0.56	0.95	1.36	1.75	2.13
Earnings on production basis per share, USD	0.10	0.07	0.21	0.26	0.10	0.51	0.39	0.40	0.40	0.38

How to read

white column reported quarter
amber column partially reported quarter
blue column estimate quarter
bold — disclosed by the company
normal — derived arithmetic from disclosed numbers
grey — model estimate