Thesis — PetroNor E&P
Established 2026-07-22 (onboarding). Holding, account 52573102.
The core
The market — institutional investors especially — is too bearish because of the pending corruption trial. Underneath the legal overhang sits a debt-free producer with a stable production record whose coming cash flow is priced extremely low. A fine, even a large one, is absorbable; the discount assumes worse.
Company terms: glossary.
What has to stay true
- PNGF Sud (Congo) keeps producing at a stable level and the cash keeps reaching shareholders as distributions.
- The trial stays a money problem (fine/settlement), not an asset or management-integrity problem.
- No debt taken on; the balance sheet stays a cushion.
Sell triggers
- Trial touches the asset — any outcome threatening the PNGF Sud licence, the Congo relationship, or cash repatriation. The single field is the company.
- Trial reveals current management corruption — legacy figures are one thing; if current leadership acted corruptly, the "too bearish" read inverts into a governance problem in a fragile jurisdiction.
- Unexplained cash-machine failure — a distribution stop or production decline management cannot explain. (Lifting-timing noise is not this; see ADR-0005.)
A fine alone — even a large one — is not a sell trigger.
Explicitly valued at zero
Pure optionality — logged and tracked in the dossier, enters the model only when triggered:
- The Nigerian asset (Aje) and its potential sale, including the USD 10M share-settlement receivable.
- The Guinea-Bissau earn-out: up to USD 60M contingent on a future commercial development by Apus (carried at USD 1.88M in PetroNor's books).
— reported numbers never change; only estimate cells move.
Quarter by quarter
PetroNor sells via one–two liftings a year, so reported income says little about a single quarter (ADR-0005). This table follows the barrels instead: what the field produced, what the State took (royalty, cost oil, profit oil), and what PetroNor earned into inventory. Earned barrels are valued at the price of the cargo that sold them: the April 2026 overlift pre-sold H1 and most of Q3 production at $116.05, so those quarters carry a settled price even without a lifting of their own. Barrels no cargo has covered yet use the scenario's price estimate. The company disclosures anchor the top and bottom of the cascade (net production, entitlement earned); the State's take between them is shown as one line because its internal split (royalty vs cost recovery vs tax oil) is only partially knowable — royalty is statutory 15%, the rest is computed by the PSC mechanics.
| Barrels — production to entitlement |
|---|
| Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|
| Gross field production, barrels/day | 25,500 | 24,400 | 27,100 | 28,100 | 30,100 | 29,200 | 29,200 | 29,700 |
| Net WI production, barrels/day (16.83% of gross) | 4,289 | 4,112 | 4,564 | 4,721 | 5,060 | 4,910 | 4,910 | 5,000 |
| Net WI production, barrels (whole quarter) | 390,299 | 378,304 | 419,888 | 424,890 | 460,460 | 452,000 | 452,000 | 450,000 |
| − State's take, barrels (royalty + tax oil, paid in oil) | −120,857 | −98,622 | −113,021 | −120,890 | −180,000 | −176,000 | −176,000 | −132,000 |
| = Entitlement earned, barrels | 269,442 | 279,682 | 306,867 | 304,000 | 280,000 | 275,000 | 275,000 | 318,000 |
| Earnings on production basis (USD million) |
|---|
| Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|
| Price valuing earned barrels, USD/bbl | 61.3 | 61.3 | 61.3 | 116.0 | 116.0 | 116.0 | ≈62.1 | 55.0 |
| Earned value (entitlement × price) | 16.5 | 17.2 | 18.8 | 35.3 | 32.5 | 31.9 | 17.1 | 17.5 |
| − Operating expenses | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 |
| − Administrative expenses | 2.8 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| = Economic EBITDA | 7.8 | 9.8 | 13.4 | 27.4 | 24.5 | 24.1 | 9.2 | 9.7 |
| − Capex paid | 2.3 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 7.5 |
| − Decommissioning escrow (rate × produced barrels) | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| − Legal contingency (trial outcome, placed Q2 2027) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| = Earnings on production basis | 5.3 | 2.0 | 6.4 | 24.9 | 22.1 | 21.6 | 6.7 | 1.9 |
| Per share, USD | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| Cash (USD million) — bridge from production-basis earnings to the reported cash balance |
|---|
| Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|
| = Earnings on production basis (from above) | 5.3 | 2.0 | 6.4 | 24.9 | 22.1 | 21.6 | 6.7 | 1.9 |
| − Earned value (barrels valued, not yet cash) | 16.5 | 17.2 | 18.8 | 35.3 | 32.5 | 31.9 | 17.1 | 17.5 |
| + Lifting cash received | — | — | 33.1 | — | 111.9 | — | — | — |
| − Distributions to shareholders | 30.7 | — | — | — | ≈48.0 | — | — | — |
| ± Working capital & other (plug in reported quarters) | -4.9 | +0.4 | -7.7 | -4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| = Change in cash | -46.9 | -14.7 | 13.0 | -14.9 | 53.4 | -10.3 | -10.3 | -15.6 |
| Cash at start | 107.5 | 60.6 | 45.9 | 58.9 | 44.0 | 97.4 | 87.1 | 76.7 |
| = Cash at end | 60.6 | 45.9 | 58.9 | 44.0 | 97.4 | 87.1 | 76.7 | 61.2 |
| Inventory at the Djeno terminal (barrels) |
|---|
| Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|
| Inventory start | -242,717 | 26,725 | 306,407 | 73,195 | 377,000 | -307,000 | -32,000 | 243,000 |
| + Entitlement earned | +269,442 | +279,682 | +306,867 | +304,000 | +280,000 | +275,000 | +275,000 | +318,000 |
| − Lifting, barrels | — | — | −540,079 | — | −964,593 | — | possible late Q4 | — |
| @ realized price, USD/bbl | — | — | 61.32 | — | 116.05 | — | — | — |
| ± Reconciliation to the printed stock position | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| = Inventory end | 26,725 | 306,407 | 73,195 | 377,195 | -307,000 | -32,000 | 243,000 | 562,000 |
| Price valuing inventory, USD/bbl (cargo that takes it, else estimate) | 61.3 | 61.3 | 116.0 | 116.0 | 116.0 | 116.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 |
| = Inventory value, USD M (stock × price above) | 1.6 | 18.8 | 8.5 | 43.8 | -35.6 | -3.7 | 13.4 | 30.9 |
| Valuation |
|---|
| Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|
| Cash + inventory value, USD M | 62.2 | 64.7 | 67.4 | 87.8 | 61.8 | 83.4 | 90.1 | 92.0 |
| Cash + inventory per share, USD | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 0.43 | 0.59 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| Earnings on production basis per share, USD (trailing 4 quarters) | — | — | 0.13 | 0.27 | 0.39 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.37 |
How to read
- white column reported quarter
- amber column partially reported quarter
- blue column estimate quarter
- bold — disclosed by the company
- normal — derived arithmetic from disclosed numbers
- grey — model estimate
Year by year
The same table, year columns: reported history 2021–2025 against the model years 2026–2030, which are literal sums of the quarterly engine above — the two views cannot disagree. Year-end inventory is pinned to the positions the company printed (balance-sheet stock notes 2020–2023; the 2024 overlift liability of $35.8M at the December cargo's price, whose H1 2025 repayment the quarterly liability path confirms). Where the flow arithmetic disagrees with a printed position the gap shows on its own reconciliation line — the +129k barrels in 2022 is a real, unresolved break inside the consolidation-era accounts. Lifting cash in history years is lifted barrels × the year's realized price — settlement timing (e.g. the December cargoes paid in the following January) sits in the working-capital plug. Distributions show only what was paid or announced. *From 2027 the model assumes production is sold in-period (ADR-0005): the year's lifting equals its entitlement at the scenario price, inventory stays flat and cash simply accumulates the year's production-basis earnings — no future liftings, distributions or financing are guessed.
| Barrels — production to entitlement |
|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|
| Gross field production, barrels/day | 20,700 | 23,900 | 30,700 | 28,700 | 25,700 | 29,100 | 29,700 | 29,100 | 27,900 | 26,700 |
| Net WI production, barrels/day (16.83% of gross, average) | 3,479 | 4,021 | 5,167 | 4,827 | 4,317 | 4,901 | 5,000 | 4,900 | 4,700 | 4,500 |
| Net WI production, barrels (whole year) | 1,270,000 | 1,467,700 | 1,886,000 | 1,762,000 | 1,575,761 | 1,789,000 | 1,825,000 | 1,793,000 | 1,716,000 | 1,643,000 |
| − State's take, barrels (royalty + tax oil, paid in oil) | −448,464 | −567,205 | −489,882 | −559,541 | −471,111 | −654,000 | −538,000 | −650,000 | −658,000 | −626,000 |
| = Entitlement earned, barrels | 821,536 | 900,495 | 1,396,118 | 1,202,459 | 1,104,650 | 1,135,000 | 1,287,000 | 1,144,000 | 1,058,000 | 1,016,000 |
| Earnings on production basis (USD million) |
|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|
| Price valuing earned barrels, USD/bbl | 69.3 | 91.0 | 78.3 | 77.9 | 61.3 | ≈103.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 |
| Earned value (entitlement × price) | 56.9 | 81.9 | 109.3 | 93.7 | 67.7 | 116.8 | 70.8 | 62.9 | 58.2 | 55.9 |
| − Operating expenses | 4.4 | 16.6 | 20.8 | 20.0 | 20.6 | 23.7 | 23.7 | 23.3 | 22.3 | 21.4 |
| − Administrative expenses | 13.1 | 14.4 | 11.4 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| = Economic EBITDA | 39.4 | 50.9 | 77.1 | 59.8 | 39.1 | 85.2 | 39.1 | 31.6 | 27.9 | 26.5 |
| − Capex paid | 19.8 | 35.8 | 38.3 | 13.1 | 19.4 | 9.1 | 30.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| − Decommissioning escrow (rate × produced barrels) | — | — | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| − Legal contingency (trial outcome, placed Q2 2027) | — | — | — | — | — | — | 75.0 | — | — | — |
| = Earnings on production basis | 19.7 | 15.2 | 38.3 | 45.8 | 18.9 | 75.3 | -66.9 | 15.7 | 17.0 | 15.7 |
| Per share, USD | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.13 | 0.53 | -0.47 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Cash (USD million) — bridge from production-basis earnings to the reported cash balance |
|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|
| = Earnings on production basis (from above) | 19.7 | 15.2 | 38.3 | 45.8 | 18.9 | 75.3 | -66.9 | 15.7 | 17.0 | 15.7 |
| − Earned value (barrels valued, not yet cash) | 56.9 | 81.9 | 109.3 | 93.7 | 67.7 | 116.8 | 70.8 | 62.9 | 58.2 | 55.9 |
| + Lifting cash received | 57.6 | 72.8 | 120.9 | 139.9 | 33.1 | 111.9 | 70.8 | 62.9 | 58.2 | 55.9 |
| − Distributions to shareholders | — | — | — | — | 55.9 | ≈48.0 | — | — | — | — |
| ± Working capital & other (plug in reported years) | -2.6 | -13.0 | -28.5 | -58.5 | +50.8 | -4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| = Change in cash | 17.7 | -7.0 | 21.4 | 33.5 | -20.8 | 17.8 | -66.9 | 15.7 | 17.0 | 15.7 |
| Cash at start | 14.1 | 31.8 | 24.8 | 46.2 | 79.7 | 58.9 | 76.7 | 9.9 | 25.6 | 42.6 |
| = Cash at end | 31.8 | 24.8 | 46.2 | 79.7 | 58.9 | 76.7 | 9.9 | 25.6 | 42.6 | 58.3 |
| Inventory at the Djeno terminal (barrels) |
|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|
| Inventory start | 38,730 | 24,256 | 253,992 | 106,211 | -491,376 | 73,000 | 243,000 | 243,000 | 243,000 | 243,000 |
| + Entitlement earned | +821,536 | +900,495 | +1,396,118 | +1,202,459 | +1,104,650 | +1,135,000 | +1,287,000 | +1,144,000 | +1,058,000 | +1,016,000 |
| − Lifting, barrels | −831,089 | −800,177 | −1,543,910 | −1,795,459 | −540,079 | −964,593 | −1,287,000* | −1,144,000* | −1,058,000* | −1,016,000* |
| @ realized price, USD/bbl | 69.31 | 90.99 | 78.30 | 77.94 | 61.29 | 116.01 | 55.00 | 55.00 | 55.00 | 55.00 |
| ± Reconciliation to the printed stock position | −4,921 | +129,418 | +11 | −4,587 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| = Inventory end | 24,256 | 253,992 | 106,211 | -491,376 | 73,195 | 243,000 | 243,000 | 243,000 | 243,000 | 243,000 |
| Price valuing inventory, USD/bbl (cargo that takes it, else estimate) | 91.0 | 78.3 | 77.9 | 72.8 | 116.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 |
| = Inventory value, USD M (stock × price above) | 2.2 | 19.9 | 8.3 | -35.8 | 8.5 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 |
| Valuation |
|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|
| Cash + inventory value, USD M | 34.0 | 44.7 | 54.5 | 43.9 | 67.4 | 90.1 | 23.3 | 39.0 | 56.0 | 71.7 |
| Cash + inventory per share, USD | 0.24 | 0.31 | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.47 | 0.63 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| Earnings on production basis per share, USD | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.13 | 0.53 | -0.47 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.11 |
How to read
- white column reported quarter
- amber column partially reported quarter
- blue column estimate quarter
- bold — disclosed by the company
- normal — derived arithmetic from disclosed numbers
- grey — model estimate
Quarter by quarter
PetroNor sells via one–two liftings a year, so reported income says little about a single quarter (ADR-0005). This table follows the barrels instead: what the field produced, what the State took (royalty, cost oil, profit oil), and what PetroNor earned into inventory. Earned barrels are valued at the price of the cargo that sold them: the April 2026 overlift pre-sold H1 and most of Q3 production at $116.05, so those quarters carry a settled price even without a lifting of their own. Barrels no cargo has covered yet use the scenario's price estimate. The company disclosures anchor the top and bottom of the cascade (net production, entitlement earned); the State's take between them is shown as one line because its internal split (royalty vs cost recovery vs tax oil) is only partially knowable — royalty is statutory 15%, the rest is computed by the PSC mechanics.
| Barrels — production to entitlement |
|---|
| Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|
| Gross field production, barrels/day | 25,500 | 24,400 | 27,100 | 28,100 | 30,100 | 29,200 | 29,200 | 29,700 |
| Net WI production, barrels/day (16.83% of gross) | 4,289 | 4,112 | 4,564 | 4,721 | 5,060 | 4,910 | 4,910 | 5,000 |
| Net WI production, barrels (whole quarter) | 390,299 | 378,304 | 419,888 | 424,890 | 460,460 | 452,000 | 452,000 | 450,000 |
| − State's take, barrels (royalty + tax oil, paid in oil) | −120,857 | −98,622 | −113,021 | −120,890 | −157,000 | −153,000 | −153,000 | −129,000 |
| = Entitlement earned, barrels | 269,442 | 279,682 | 306,867 | 304,000 | 304,000 | 298,000 | 298,000 | 321,000 |
| Earnings on production basis (USD million) |
|---|
| Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|
| Price valuing earned barrels, USD/bbl | 61.3 | 61.3 | 61.3 | 116.0 | 116.0 | ≈113.8 | 70.0 | 70.0 |
| Earned value (entitlement × price) | 16.5 | 17.2 | 18.8 | 35.3 | 35.3 | 33.9 | 20.9 | 22.5 |
| − Operating expenses | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 |
| − Administrative expenses | 2.8 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| = Economic EBITDA | 7.8 | 9.8 | 13.4 | 27.4 | 27.3 | 26.1 | 13.0 | 14.6 |
| − Capex paid | 2.3 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 7.5 |
| − Decommissioning escrow (rate × produced barrels) | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| − Legal contingency (trial outcome, placed Q2 2027) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| = Earnings on production basis | 5.3 | 2.0 | 6.4 | 24.9 | 24.8 | 23.6 | 10.5 | 6.9 |
| Per share, USD | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| Cash (USD million) — bridge from production-basis earnings to the reported cash balance |
|---|
| Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|
| = Earnings on production basis (from above) | 5.3 | 2.0 | 6.4 | 24.9 | 24.8 | 23.6 | 10.5 | 6.9 |
| − Earned value (barrels valued, not yet cash) | 16.5 | 17.2 | 18.8 | 35.3 | 35.3 | 33.9 | 20.9 | 22.5 |
| + Lifting cash received | — | — | 33.1 | — | 111.9 | — | — | — |
| − Distributions to shareholders | 30.7 | — | — | — | ≈48.0 | — | — | — |
| ± Working capital & other (plug in reported quarters) | -4.9 | +0.4 | -7.7 | -4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| = Change in cash | -46.9 | -14.7 | 13.0 | -14.9 | 53.4 | -10.3 | -10.3 | -15.6 |
| Cash at start | 107.5 | 60.6 | 45.9 | 58.9 | 44.0 | 97.4 | 87.1 | 76.7 |
| = Cash at end | 60.6 | 45.9 | 58.9 | 44.0 | 97.4 | 87.1 | 76.7 | 61.2 |
| Inventory at the Djeno terminal (barrels) |
|---|
| Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|
| Inventory start | -242,717 | 26,725 | 306,407 | 73,195 | 377,000 | -284,000 | 15,000 | 313,000 |
| + Entitlement earned | +269,442 | +279,682 | +306,867 | +304,000 | +304,000 | +298,000 | +298,000 | +321,000 |
| − Lifting, barrels | — | — | −540,079 | — | −964,593 | — | possible late Q4 | — |
| @ realized price, USD/bbl | — | — | 61.32 | — | 116.05 | — | — | — |
| ± Reconciliation to the printed stock position | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| = Inventory end | 26,725 | 306,407 | 73,195 | 377,195 | -284,000 | 15,000 | 313,000 | 634,000 |
| Price valuing inventory, USD/bbl (cargo that takes it, else estimate) | 61.3 | 61.3 | 116.0 | 116.0 | 116.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 |
| = Inventory value, USD M (stock × price above) | 1.6 | 18.8 | 8.5 | 43.8 | -32.9 | 1.0 | 21.9 | 44.4 |
| Valuation |
|---|
| Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|
| Cash + inventory value, USD M | 62.2 | 64.7 | 67.4 | 87.8 | 64.5 | 88.1 | 98.6 | 105.5 |
| Cash + inventory per share, USD | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 0.45 | 0.62 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| Earnings on production basis per share, USD (trailing 4 quarters) | — | — | 0.13 | 0.27 | 0.41 | 0.56 | 0.59 | 0.46 |
How to read
- white column reported quarter
- amber column partially reported quarter
- blue column estimate quarter
- bold — disclosed by the company
- normal — derived arithmetic from disclosed numbers
- grey — model estimate
Year by year
The same table, year columns: reported history 2021–2025 against the model years 2026–2030, which are literal sums of the quarterly engine above — the two views cannot disagree. Year-end inventory is pinned to the positions the company printed (balance-sheet stock notes 2020–2023; the 2024 overlift liability of $35.8M at the December cargo's price, whose H1 2025 repayment the quarterly liability path confirms). Where the flow arithmetic disagrees with a printed position the gap shows on its own reconciliation line — the +129k barrels in 2022 is a real, unresolved break inside the consolidation-era accounts. Lifting cash in history years is lifted barrels × the year's realized price — settlement timing (e.g. the December cargoes paid in the following January) sits in the working-capital plug. Distributions show only what was paid or announced. *From 2027 the model assumes production is sold in-period (ADR-0005): the year's lifting equals its entitlement at the scenario price, inventory stays flat and cash simply accumulates the year's production-basis earnings — no future liftings, distributions or financing are guessed.
| Barrels — production to entitlement |
|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|
| Gross field production, barrels/day | 20,700 | 23,900 | 30,700 | 28,700 | 25,700 | 29,100 | 29,700 | 29,100 | 27,900 | 26,700 |
| Net WI production, barrels/day (16.83% of gross, average) | 3,479 | 4,021 | 5,167 | 4,827 | 4,317 | 4,901 | 5,000 | 4,900 | 4,700 | 4,500 |
| Net WI production, barrels (whole year) | 1,270,000 | 1,467,700 | 1,886,000 | 1,762,000 | 1,575,761 | 1,789,000 | 1,825,000 | 1,793,000 | 1,716,000 | 1,643,000 |
| − State's take, barrels (royalty + tax oil, paid in oil) | −448,464 | −567,205 | −489,882 | −559,541 | −471,111 | −585,000 | −525,000 | −582,000 | −576,000 | −550,000 |
| = Entitlement earned, barrels | 821,536 | 900,495 | 1,396,118 | 1,202,459 | 1,104,650 | 1,204,000 | 1,300,000 | 1,212,000 | 1,139,000 | 1,093,000 |
| Earnings on production basis (USD million) |
|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|
| Price valuing earned barrels, USD/bbl | 69.3 | 91.0 | 78.3 | 77.9 | 61.3 | ≈104.1 | 70.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 |
| Earned value (entitlement × price) | 56.9 | 81.9 | 109.3 | 93.7 | 67.7 | 125.3 | 91.0 | 84.8 | 79.7 | 76.5 |
| − Operating expenses | 4.4 | 16.6 | 20.8 | 20.0 | 20.6 | 23.7 | 23.7 | 23.3 | 22.3 | 21.4 |
| − Administrative expenses | 13.1 | 14.4 | 11.4 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| = Economic EBITDA | 39.4 | 50.9 | 77.1 | 59.8 | 39.1 | 93.7 | 59.3 | 53.5 | 49.4 | 47.1 |
| − Capex paid | 19.8 | 35.8 | 38.3 | 13.1 | 19.4 | 9.1 | 30.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| − Decommissioning escrow (rate × produced barrels) | — | — | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| − Legal contingency (trial outcome, placed Q2 2027) | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.0 | — | — | — |
| = Earnings on production basis | 19.7 | 15.2 | 38.3 | 45.8 | 18.9 | 83.8 | 8.4 | 37.6 | 38.6 | 36.3 |
| Per share, USD | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.13 | 0.59 | 0.06 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| Cash (USD million) — bridge from production-basis earnings to the reported cash balance |
|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|
| = Earnings on production basis (from above) | 19.7 | 15.2 | 38.3 | 45.8 | 18.9 | 83.8 | 8.4 | 37.6 | 38.6 | 36.3 |
| − Earned value (barrels valued, not yet cash) | 56.9 | 81.9 | 109.3 | 93.7 | 67.7 | 125.3 | 91.0 | 84.8 | 79.7 | 76.5 |
| + Lifting cash received | 57.6 | 72.8 | 120.9 | 139.9 | 33.1 | 111.9 | 91.0 | 84.8 | 79.7 | 76.5 |
| − Distributions to shareholders | — | — | — | — | 55.9 | ≈48.0 | — | — | — | — |
| ± Working capital & other (plug in reported years) | -2.6 | -13.0 | -28.5 | -58.5 | +50.8 | -4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| = Change in cash | 17.7 | -7.0 | 21.4 | 33.5 | -20.8 | 17.8 | 8.4 | 37.6 | 38.6 | 36.3 |
| Cash at start | 14.1 | 31.8 | 24.8 | 46.2 | 79.7 | 58.9 | 76.7 | 85.1 | 122.7 | 161.3 |
| = Cash at end | 31.8 | 24.8 | 46.2 | 79.7 | 58.9 | 76.7 | 85.1 | 122.7 | 161.3 | 197.6 |
| Inventory at the Djeno terminal (barrels) |
|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|
| Inventory start | 38,730 | 24,256 | 253,992 | 106,211 | -491,376 | 73,000 | 313,000 | 313,000 | 313,000 | 313,000 |
| + Entitlement earned | +821,536 | +900,495 | +1,396,118 | +1,202,459 | +1,104,650 | +1,204,000 | +1,300,000 | +1,212,000 | +1,139,000 | +1,093,000 |
| − Lifting, barrels | −831,089 | −800,177 | −1,543,910 | −1,795,459 | −540,079 | −964,593 | −1,300,000* | −1,212,000* | −1,139,000* | −1,093,000* |
| @ realized price, USD/bbl | 69.31 | 90.99 | 78.30 | 77.94 | 61.29 | 116.01 | 70.00 | 70.00 | 70.00 | 70.00 |
| ± Reconciliation to the printed stock position | −4,921 | +129,418 | +11 | −4,587 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| = Inventory end | 24,256 | 253,992 | 106,211 | -491,376 | 73,195 | 313,000 | 313,000 | 313,000 | 313,000 | 313,000 |
| Price valuing inventory, USD/bbl (cargo that takes it, else estimate) | 91.0 | 78.3 | 77.9 | 72.8 | 116.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 |
| = Inventory value, USD M (stock × price above) | 2.2 | 19.9 | 8.3 | -35.8 | 8.5 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 |
| Valuation |
|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|
| Cash + inventory value, USD M | 34.0 | 44.7 | 54.5 | 43.9 | 67.4 | 98.6 | 107.0 | 144.6 | 183.2 | 219.5 |
| Cash + inventory per share, USD | 0.24 | 0.31 | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.47 | 0.69 | 0.75 | 1.02 | 1.29 | 1.54 |
| Earnings on production basis per share, USD | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.13 | 0.59 | 0.06 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.26 |
How to read
- white column reported quarter
- amber column partially reported quarter
- blue column estimate quarter
- bold — disclosed by the company
- normal — derived arithmetic from disclosed numbers
- grey — model estimate
Quarter by quarter
PetroNor sells via one–two liftings a year, so reported income says little about a single quarter (ADR-0005). This table follows the barrels instead: what the field produced, what the State took (royalty, cost oil, profit oil), and what PetroNor earned into inventory. Earned barrels are valued at the price of the cargo that sold them: the April 2026 overlift pre-sold H1 and most of Q3 production at $116.05, so those quarters carry a settled price even without a lifting of their own. Barrels no cargo has covered yet use the scenario's price estimate. The company disclosures anchor the top and bottom of the cascade (net production, entitlement earned); the State's take between them is shown as one line because its internal split (royalty vs cost recovery vs tax oil) is only partially knowable — royalty is statutory 15%, the rest is computed by the PSC mechanics.
| Barrels — production to entitlement |
|---|
| Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|
| Gross field production, barrels/day | 25,500 | 24,400 | 27,100 | 28,100 | 30,100 | 29,200 | 29,200 | 29,700 |
| Net WI production, barrels/day (16.83% of gross) | 4,289 | 4,112 | 4,564 | 4,721 | 5,060 | 4,910 | 4,910 | 5,000 |
| Net WI production, barrels (whole quarter) | 390,299 | 378,304 | 419,888 | 424,890 | 460,460 | 452,000 | 452,000 | 450,000 |
| − State's take, barrels (royalty + tax oil, paid in oil) | −120,857 | −98,622 | −113,021 | −120,890 | −135,000 | −132,000 | −132,000 | −119,000 |
| = Entitlement earned, barrels | 269,442 | 279,682 | 306,867 | 304,000 | 325,000 | 319,000 | 319,000 | 331,000 |
| Earnings on production basis (USD million) |
|---|
| Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|
| Price valuing earned barrels, USD/bbl | 61.3 | 61.3 | 61.3 | 116.0 | 116.0 | ≈111.4 | 90.0 | 90.0 |
| Earned value (entitlement × price) | 16.5 | 17.2 | 18.8 | 35.3 | 37.8 | 35.6 | 28.7 | 29.8 |
| − Operating expenses | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 |
| − Administrative expenses | 2.8 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| = Economic EBITDA | 7.8 | 9.8 | 13.4 | 27.4 | 29.8 | 27.7 | 20.9 | 21.9 |
| − Capex paid | 2.3 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 7.5 |
| − Decommissioning escrow (rate × produced barrels) | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| − Legal contingency (trial outcome, placed Q2 2027) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| = Earnings on production basis | 5.3 | 2.0 | 6.4 | 24.9 | 27.3 | 25.2 | 18.4 | 14.2 |
| Per share, USD | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| Cash (USD million) — bridge from production-basis earnings to the reported cash balance |
|---|
| Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|
| = Earnings on production basis (from above) | 5.3 | 2.0 | 6.4 | 24.9 | 27.3 | 25.2 | 18.4 | 14.2 |
| − Earned value (barrels valued, not yet cash) | 16.5 | 17.2 | 18.8 | 35.3 | 37.8 | 35.6 | 28.7 | 29.8 |
| + Lifting cash received | — | — | 33.1 | — | 111.9 | — | — | — |
| − Distributions to shareholders | 30.7 | — | — | — | ≈48.0 | — | — | — |
| ± Working capital & other (plug in reported quarters) | -4.9 | +0.4 | -7.7 | -4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| = Change in cash | -46.9 | -14.7 | 13.0 | -14.9 | 53.4 | -10.3 | -10.3 | -15.6 |
| Cash at start | 107.5 | 60.6 | 45.9 | 58.9 | 44.0 | 97.4 | 87.1 | 76.7 |
| = Cash at end | 60.6 | 45.9 | 58.9 | 44.0 | 97.4 | 87.1 | 76.7 | 61.2 |
| Inventory at the Djeno terminal (barrels) |
|---|
| Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|
| Inventory start | -242,717 | 26,725 | 306,407 | 73,195 | 377,000 | -262,000 | 57,000 | 377,000 |
| + Entitlement earned | +269,442 | +279,682 | +306,867 | +304,000 | +325,000 | +319,000 | +319,000 | +331,000 |
| − Lifting, barrels | — | — | −540,079 | — | −964,593 | — | possible late Q4 | — |
| @ realized price, USD/bbl | — | — | 61.32 | — | 116.05 | — | — | — |
| ± Reconciliation to the printed stock position | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| = Inventory end | 26,725 | 306,407 | 73,195 | 377,195 | -262,000 | 57,000 | 377,000 | 708,000 |
| Price valuing inventory, USD/bbl (cargo that takes it, else estimate) | 61.3 | 61.3 | 116.0 | 116.0 | 116.0 | 90.0 | 90.0 | 90.0 |
| = Inventory value, USD M (stock × price above) | 1.6 | 18.8 | 8.5 | 43.8 | -30.4 | 5.2 | 33.9 | 63.7 |
| Valuation |
|---|
| Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|
| Cash + inventory value, USD M | 62.2 | 64.7 | 67.4 | 87.8 | 67.0 | 92.2 | 110.6 | 124.9 |
| Cash + inventory per share, USD | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 0.47 | 0.65 | 0.78 | 0.88 |
| Earnings on production basis per share, USD (trailing 4 quarters) | — | — | 0.13 | 0.27 | 0.43 | 0.59 | 0.67 | 0.60 |
How to read
- white column reported quarter
- amber column partially reported quarter
- blue column estimate quarter
- bold — disclosed by the company
- normal — derived arithmetic from disclosed numbers
- grey — model estimate
Year by year
The same table, year columns: reported history 2021–2025 against the model years 2026–2030, which are literal sums of the quarterly engine above — the two views cannot disagree. Year-end inventory is pinned to the positions the company printed (balance-sheet stock notes 2020–2023; the 2024 overlift liability of $35.8M at the December cargo's price, whose H1 2025 repayment the quarterly liability path confirms). Where the flow arithmetic disagrees with a printed position the gap shows on its own reconciliation line — the +129k barrels in 2022 is a real, unresolved break inside the consolidation-era accounts. Lifting cash in history years is lifted barrels × the year's realized price — settlement timing (e.g. the December cargoes paid in the following January) sits in the working-capital plug. Distributions show only what was paid or announced. *From 2027 the model assumes production is sold in-period (ADR-0005): the year's lifting equals its entitlement at the scenario price, inventory stays flat and cash simply accumulates the year's production-basis earnings — no future liftings, distributions or financing are guessed.
| Barrels — production to entitlement |
|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|
| Gross field production, barrels/day | 20,700 | 23,900 | 30,700 | 28,700 | 25,700 | 29,100 | 29,700 | 29,100 | 27,900 | 26,700 |
| Net WI production, barrels/day (16.83% of gross, average) | 3,479 | 4,021 | 5,167 | 4,827 | 4,317 | 4,901 | 5,000 | 4,900 | 4,700 | 4,500 |
| Net WI production, barrels (whole year) | 1,270,000 | 1,467,700 | 1,886,000 | 1,762,000 | 1,575,761 | 1,789,000 | 1,825,000 | 1,793,000 | 1,716,000 | 1,643,000 |
| − State's take, barrels (royalty + tax oil, paid in oil) | −448,464 | −567,205 | −489,882 | −559,541 | −471,111 | −521,000 | −484,000 | −511,000 | −499,000 | −477,000 |
| = Entitlement earned, barrels | 821,536 | 900,495 | 1,396,118 | 1,202,459 | 1,104,650 | 1,268,000 | 1,341,000 | 1,283,000 | 1,216,000 | 1,166,000 |
| Earnings on production basis (USD million) |
|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|
| Price valuing earned barrels, USD/bbl | 69.3 | 91.0 | 78.3 | 77.9 | 61.3 | ≈108.3 | 90.0 | 90.0 | 90.0 | 90.0 |
| Earned value (entitlement × price) | 56.9 | 81.9 | 109.3 | 93.7 | 67.7 | 137.4 | 120.7 | 115.4 | 109.5 | 104.9 |
| − Operating expenses | 4.4 | 16.6 | 20.8 | 20.0 | 20.6 | 23.7 | 23.7 | 23.3 | 22.3 | 21.4 |
| − Administrative expenses | 13.1 | 14.4 | 11.4 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| = Economic EBITDA | 39.4 | 50.9 | 77.1 | 59.8 | 39.1 | 105.7 | 89.0 | 84.1 | 79.2 | 75.6 |
| − Capex paid | 19.8 | 35.8 | 38.3 | 13.1 | 19.4 | 9.1 | 30.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| − Decommissioning escrow (rate × produced barrels) | — | — | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| − Legal contingency (trial outcome, placed Q2 2027) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| = Earnings on production basis | 19.7 | 15.2 | 38.3 | 45.8 | 18.9 | 95.8 | 58.1 | 68.2 | 68.3 | 64.7 |
| Per share, USD | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.13 | 0.67 | 0.41 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| Cash (USD million) — bridge from production-basis earnings to the reported cash balance |
|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|
| = Earnings on production basis (from above) | 19.7 | 15.2 | 38.3 | 45.8 | 18.9 | 95.8 | 58.1 | 68.2 | 68.3 | 64.7 |
| − Earned value (barrels valued, not yet cash) | 56.9 | 81.9 | 109.3 | 93.7 | 67.7 | 137.4 | 120.7 | 115.4 | 109.5 | 104.9 |
| + Lifting cash received | 57.6 | 72.8 | 120.9 | 139.9 | 33.1 | 111.9 | 120.7 | 115.4 | 109.5 | 104.9 |
| − Distributions to shareholders | — | — | — | — | 55.9 | ≈48.0 | — | — | — | — |
| ± Working capital & other (plug in reported years) | -2.6 | -13.0 | -28.5 | -58.5 | +50.8 | -4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| = Change in cash | 17.7 | -7.0 | 21.4 | 33.5 | -20.8 | 17.8 | 58.1 | 68.2 | 68.3 | 64.7 |
| Cash at start | 14.1 | 31.8 | 24.8 | 46.2 | 79.7 | 58.9 | 76.7 | 134.8 | 203.0 | 271.4 |
| = Cash at end | 31.8 | 24.8 | 46.2 | 79.7 | 58.9 | 76.7 | 134.8 | 203.0 | 271.4 | 336.1 |
| Inventory at the Djeno terminal (barrels) |
|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|
| Inventory start | 38,730 | 24,256 | 253,992 | 106,211 | -491,376 | 73,000 | 377,000 | 377,000 | 377,000 | 377,000 |
| + Entitlement earned | +821,536 | +900,495 | +1,396,118 | +1,202,459 | +1,104,650 | +1,268,000 | +1,341,000 | +1,283,000 | +1,216,000 | +1,166,000 |
| − Lifting, barrels | −831,089 | −800,177 | −1,543,910 | −1,795,459 | −540,079 | −964,593 | −1,341,000* | −1,283,000* | −1,216,000* | −1,166,000* |
| @ realized price, USD/bbl | 69.31 | 90.99 | 78.30 | 77.94 | 61.29 | 116.01 | 90.00 | 90.00 | 90.00 | 90.00 |
| ± Reconciliation to the printed stock position | −4,921 | +129,418 | +11 | −4,587 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| = Inventory end | 24,256 | 253,992 | 106,211 | -491,376 | 73,195 | 377,000 | 377,000 | 377,000 | 377,000 | 377,000 |
| Price valuing inventory, USD/bbl (cargo that takes it, else estimate) | 91.0 | 78.3 | 77.9 | 72.8 | 116.0 | 90.0 | 90.0 | 90.0 | 90.0 | 90.0 |
| = Inventory value, USD M (stock × price above) | 2.2 | 19.9 | 8.3 | -35.8 | 8.5 | 33.9 | 33.9 | 33.9 | 33.9 | 33.9 |
| Valuation |
|---|
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|
| Cash + inventory value, USD M | 34.0 | 44.7 | 54.5 | 43.9 | 67.4 | 110.6 | 168.7 | 237.0 | 305.3 | 370.0 |
| Cash + inventory per share, USD | 0.24 | 0.31 | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.47 | 0.78 | 1.19 | 1.66 | 2.14 | 2.60 |
| Earnings on production basis per share, USD | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.13 | 0.67 | 0.41 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.45 |
How to read
- white column reported quarter
- amber column partially reported quarter
- blue column estimate quarter
- bold — disclosed by the company
- normal — derived arithmetic from disclosed numbers
- grey — model estimate